Friday, July 28, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 008

 

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 008

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 008

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Friday 28 July 2017
Next update: Friday Evening, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has tracked west-northwest during the past 6 hours while maintaining its strength over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

This cyclone is expected to resume moving northwestward for the next 24 hours at an increased speed of 17 km/hr towards the northeastern part of Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a typhoon by Saturday early morning (July 29).

*STS NESAT (GORIO) together with Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W located over the South China Sea will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, July 28…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.2N 125.5E), about 369 km east of Basco, Batanes or 387 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 14 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Along Changbin-Cheegong Area in Taiwan between 5-6pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the northeastern part of the Bashi Channel…about 203 km north-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM July 29: 22.3N 122.9E @ 120kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY MORNING: Over Taiwan Strait (outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm after traversing Taiwan…about 87 km east-southeast of Quanzhou, China [8AM July 30: 24.6N 119.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens into a minimal tropical storm while  moving across the rugged terrain of Southeastern China…about 90 km west-southwest of Fuzhou, China [8AM July 31: 25.7N 118.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 610 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri July 28, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.2º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 382 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 433 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 3: 453 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 468 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 5: 779 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

goriopsws17-05

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 007

 

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 007

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 007

Issued at: 06:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Friday 28 July 2017
Next update: Friday Afternoon, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours as it move north-northwest towards the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

It is expected to move northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 17 km/hr towards the eastern part of Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a typhoon by Saturday early morning (July 29).

*STS NESAT (GORIO) and Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions with light to at times moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 05:00 AM PhT, July 28…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.8N 126.2E), about 444 km east of Basco, Batanes or 498 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 18 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Chenggong, Taiwan between 5-6pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel…about 206 km east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM July 29: 21.8N 123.5E @ 140kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a typhoon…about 195 km east-southeast of Xiamen, China [2AM July 30: 23.9N 119.9E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a tropical storm as it move towards Southeastern China…about 212 km northeast of Xiamen, China [2AM July 31: 25.9N 119.5E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 726 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Fri July 28, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 19.8º N Lat 126.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 508 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 530 km ENE of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 565 km NE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 599 km NE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 797 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

goriopsws17-05

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 006

 

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 006 

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 006

Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Friday 28 July 2017
Next update: Friday Morning, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours while moving slowly northwestward across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

This severe storm is expected to continue moving northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 19 km/hr towards the Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a Typhoon by Friday Evening (July 28).

*Both STS NESAT (GORIO) and Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 92W continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). For the next couple of days, the enhanced monsoon is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across the Western Sections of Luzon, MiMaRoPa, and Metro Manila. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 PM PhT, July 27…1500 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9N 126.6E), about 492 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 540 km east-southeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 13 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Chenggong, Taiwan between 6-7pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the western part of the North Philippine Sea…about 246 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM July 28: 21.5N 124.1E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Maintains its intensity and makes landfall over the Southeastern part of Taiwan…about 303 km north-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM July 29: 23.4N 121.0E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to a tropical storm as it move towards Southeastern China…about 76 km south of Xiamen, China [8PM July 30: 23.8N 118.2E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 126.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 524 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 534 km ENE of Tuguegarao  City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 555 km ENE of Cauayan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 587 km ENE of Santiago  City, Isabela
Distance 5: 762 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

goriopsws17-05

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Thursday, July 27, 2017

Fwd: Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 004

 


Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 004

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 004

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Thursday 27 July 2017
Next update: Thursday Evening, 27 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TS GORIO has intensified into a severe tropical storm (STS GORIO) in the past 12 hours. It enhances the Southwest Monsoon (HABAGAT) which brings cloudy conditions with moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms over the western sections of Luzon and Metro Manila.  

It is expected to move northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 16 km/hr over the Batanes Group of Islands.

*Residents living along the path of this storm must take all necessary precautions against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 11:00 AM PhT, July 27…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 18.0N 127.5E), about 590 km east of  Ilagan, Isabela or 639 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 6 kphtowards the Batanes Group of Islands
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Taitung, Taiwan between 9-10am on July 29, with a medium Strike Probability of 60-65%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.

*Where moderate to heavy rains of 30 to 100 millimeters will be expected.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 365 km east of Basco, Batanes [8AM July 28: 20.3N 125.5E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Move towards the East Taiwan Sea and is expected to landfall over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 191 km north of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM July 29: 22.5N 121.9E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a severe tropical storm due to its landfall over the southern sections of Taiwan…about 362 km east-northeast of Hongkong [8AM July 30: 23.3N 117.5E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 676 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.0º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 670 km NNE of Sorsogon, Sorsogon
Distance 2: 674 km NE of Legazpi, Albay
Distance 3: 730 km NNE of Calbayog, Western Samar
Distance 4: 745 km NNE of Borongan , Eastern Samar
Distance 5: 795 km ENE of Metro Manila



Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 005

 

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) Update Number 005

gorio17-05

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (GORIO) UPDATE NO. 005

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Thursday 27 July 2017
Next update: Friday Early Morning, 28 July 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm NESAT (GORIO) has maintained its strength during the past 6 hours while moving slowly northwestward across the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea.  

This strong storm is expected to continue moving northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 18 km/hr towards the Bashi Channel, and is likely to become a Typhoon by Friday afternoon (Jul 28).

*STS NESAT (GORIO) together with a developing LPA 92W located about 410 km WNW of Laoag City (18.8N 116.7E) – will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and will bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across the Western Sections of Luzon including MiMaRoPa. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against heavy rains which can produce flash floods, landslides and overflowing of some river systems.

Where is NESAT (GORIO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT, July 27…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the Southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.4N 127.1E), about 522 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 582 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center…Gustiness: 130 kph.

Past Movement (6 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 10 kphtowards the Batanes-Taiwan Area
Potential Landfall Area(s):: Over Taitung, Taiwan between 2-3pm on Saturday (Jul 29), with a medium Strike Probability of 50-60%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?*:: None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a typhoon while over the western part of the North Philippine Sea…about 271 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM July 28: 20.9N 124.6E @ 130kph]Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over the Southeastern part of Taiwan…about 254 km north-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM July 29: 23.0N 121.3E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a severe tropical storm as it bears down the coast of Southeastern China…about 58 km south-southeast of Xiamen, China [2PM July 30: 24.0N 118.3E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info


> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 676 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu July 27, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.4º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 516 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 575 km E of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 3: 580 km E of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 606 km E of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 5: 774 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

goriopsws17-05


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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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