Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W (Unnamed)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #02

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 30 JUNE 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 01 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #003 (RELOCATED)
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NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (UNNAMED) WAS RELOCATED AS
ITS CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED TO THE EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS
POSITION
...DRIFTING WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 04W is expected to attain Tropical Storm
strength later tonight or early tomorrow, and shall track WNW
for the next 12 hours before turning more NW'ly into the Phi-
lippine Sea. Forecast to become a Typhoon around Monday after-
noon, July 3.

+ EFFECTS: 04W's main core continues to organize and strengthen
with its Outer (feeder) Bands now spreading across the tiny
Micronesian islands of Palau, Ulithi and Yap. The storm's core
particularly the inner & outer bands are expected to bring mo-
derate to heavy torrential rains with strong winds that could
produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes
over the affected areas.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: This newly-formed system is not
yet enhancing the Southwest (SW) Monsoon.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 30 JUNE
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 6.8º N...LONGITUDE 138.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 425 KM (230 NM) ESE OF KOROR, PALAU, FSM

DISTANCE 2: 300 KM (162 NM) SOUTH OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

DISTANCE 3: 1,445 KM (780 NM) ESE OF SURIGAO CITY, MINDANAO, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PALAU-ULITHI-YAP AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM FRI JUNE 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 01 JULY: 7.1N 137.9E / 65-85 KPH [Trop Storm]
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 01 JULY: 7.7N 137.3E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 JUNE POSITION: 6.7N 138.5E.
^ TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INI-
TIALLY AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTH OF JAPAN. A PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STORM
BY 24 HOURS. THIS PERIPHERAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEREBY
ALTERING THE STORM TRACK FROM A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...(more info)

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
      highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
      explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
   this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on the TD 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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