Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS EWINIAR (ESTER) almost a Typhoon... [Update #07]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #07

Name: TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 03 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 03 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #013
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EWINIAR (ESTER) JUST A SHY AWAY OF BECOMING A TYPHOON...
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINE SEA...EYE FEATURE NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERIES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to continue tracking
NW'ly across the Philippine Sea for the next 3 days. Forecast
to become Typhoon today. The Three to Five-Day Advance Fore-
cast (July 6-8) continues to show the system turning North-
ward, sparing the Philippines to a direct hit - but heading
in the direction of Okinawa-Southern Japan area.

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR is no longer affecting any land areas as
its circulation expands with the development of an EyeWall.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: None.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Low Pressure Area (aka. Tropi-
cal Disturbance) over Central Micronesia has tracked West &
organize during the past 6 hours. The disturbance was located
approximately 2,300 km SE of TS EWINIAR (4.4N 153.9E) or half-
way between the Islands of Pohnpei & Chuuk. It is likely to
become a significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to
48 hours. Stay tuned for more updates on these system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 03 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.3º N...LONGITUDE 134.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 525 KM (283 NM) NW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

DISTANCE 2: 1,080 KM (582 NM) ESE OF BICOL REGION, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MON JULY 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 03 JULY: 13.0N 133.5E / 140-165 KPH [Typhoon]
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 JULY: 14.2N 132.5E / 160-195 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 JULY POSITION: 12.1N 134.4E.
^TS EWINIAR HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE (STHPR) TO THE NORTH. THE STHPR IS CURRENTLY
ANCHORED OVER TAIWAN BUT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AS A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER
NORTHERN CHINA AND MOVES INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA
THROUGH 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 JULY: 12.2N 134.4E / NW @ 13 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest
warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being
      the highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For
      more explanations on these signals, visit:
      http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
   this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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