Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #14

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 06 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 07 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #027
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TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) SLOWING DOWN FURTHER OVER THE
NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA AS IT CONTINUED ON ITS NORTH-

WEST TRACK. THE THREAT TO OKINAWA AND RYUKYU ISLANDS

INCREASES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to re-intensify
and move NNW'ly for the next 12 hours then shall begin
turning northward. Its core (Eye+EyeWall) is expected to
pass west of Okinawa, Japan approximately 100 km west of
Kadena Air Base Saturday evening (July 8), around 10-11
PM HK Time. The 3 to 5-Day Advance Forecast (July 9-11)
shows the system passing over Korea Strait (approx 110
km NW of Sasebo City, Kyushu) sometime around 1-2 AM HK
Time early Monday (July 10) before moving into the Sea
of Japan.

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR's large circulation remains over the
Northern Philippine Sea. however, its Northern Outer
(Feeder) Bands is forecast to reach Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
sometime tomorrow morning Friday (July 7). The storm's
outer bands is expected to bring occasional rains with mo-
derate to sometimes strong winds that could produce flying
debris, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along
river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes over the
affected islands.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon has
started to strengthen and is now affecting Luzon & the wes-
tern sections of Visayas & Mindanao (including Metro Manila,
Western Bicol except for Palawan). This monsoon system will
bring cloudy skies with moderate to sometimes strong SW'ly
winds (approx. 30 to 60 km/hr), accompanied with moderate
to heavy occasional rains. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks,
low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/
1006 mb) is now over south of the Marianas and continues to
show signs of development as circulation began to consoli-
date with cyclonic turning. The possibility of becoming a
well-develop Tropical Cyclone is likely within the next 24
to 48 hours. The disturbance was last located approximately
325 km SSW of Hagatna, Guam (10.6N 143.9E). Stay tuned for
more updates on this developing system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 06 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.8º N...LONGITUDE 128.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 730 KM (395 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 670 KM (362 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 745 KM (405 NM) SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 938 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 40 FEET (12.1 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 890 KM (480 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM THU JULY 06
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JULY: 20.3N 128.0E / 205-250 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 JULY: 21.3N 127.4E / 215-260 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JULY POSITION: 19.6N 128.5E.
^A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA
HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EX-
TENSION TO THE NORTH OF TY EWINIAR, ALLOWING THE STORM
TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE STORM IS EXPEC-
TED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
THROUGH 72 HOURS, TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR
TERM AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PAST 48
HOURS...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JULY: 19.7N 128.4E / NW @ 09 KPH / 165 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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