Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KAEMI (GLENDA) now a Category 2 system...[Update #07]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #07

Name: TYPHOON KAEMI [GLENDA/06W/0605]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 21 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 22 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
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TYPHOON KAEMI (GLENDA) REACHES CATEGORY TWO ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE...ACCELERATING
FURTHER WEST-NORTHWEST, INCREASING ITS THREAT TO
EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON AND TAIWAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The typhoon is expected to continue
moving WNW to NW'ly for the next 2 to 3 days and is
forecast to reach Category 3 status (205-km/hr) early
Sunday morning, July 23. The 4 to 5-day Long-Range
Forecast continues to show the system making landfall
over Central Taiwan, somewhere to the South of Hualien
City by early Tuesday morning, July 25. Thereafter,
KAEMI shall move over Taiwan Strait, shall make its
second landfall over Fujian Province, China by Wednes-
day morning (July 26) and dissipate.

+ EFFECTS: KAEMI's westernmost outer bands continues to
spread along the eastern coasts of Samar, Leyte, Siargao
Island & Bicol Provinces. Moderate to sometimes heavy
rainfall with gale-force winds of up to 40 km/hr may be
expected along the typhoon's outer bands. The coastal
and beach-front areas of the affected provinces may
expect moderate to rough seas with dangerous surf &
waves reaching 3 to 6 feet tonight & tomorrow as the
intensifying typhoon moves across the Philippine Sea.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate Southwest (SW)
Monsoon continues to affect Western Visayas (particularly
the Islands of Panay, Guimaras & Negros) and Mindanao par-
ticularly the western sections tonight and tomorrow. Cloudy
weather conditions with possible light to moderate to some-
times heavy rainfall & choppy seas can be expected over the
affected areas. Southwesterly winds may range from 20 to
35 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 21 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.1º N...LONGITUDE 132.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,005 KM (542 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,080 KM (583 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,180 KM (637 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 958 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 27 FEET (8.2 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM FRI JULY 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JULY: 16.8N 130.5E / 175-215 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 22 JULY: 17.8N 128.7E / 195-240 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JULY POSITION: 15.9N 132.7E.
^TY KAEMI IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE IN-
FLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR)
ANCHORED EAST OF OKINAWA. A SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
LONGWAVE FLOW, AND IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STHPR
NORTH OF TAIWAN. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO CURVE NORTHWARD. THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TY KAEMI ON ITS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very
   small insect that lives in highly organized groups.
   It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol
   of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JULY: 15.7N 132.8E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on the TY KAEMI (06W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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