Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SAOMAI (08W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #04

Name: TYPHOON SAOMAI [08W/0608]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 07 AUGUST 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 07 AUGUST 2006
Sources: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
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SAOMAI (08W) BECOMES THE 5TH TYPHOON OF THE 2006
SEASON...MOVING ON A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...EX-
PECTED TO ENTER THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
(PAR) TUESDAY MORNING.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SAOMAI is expected to continue
intensifying while moving NW'ly for the next 2 days.
The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast (Aug 10-12) shows
SAOMI reaching peak winds of almost 200 km/hr around
Wednesday & Thursday. The system shall turn more to
the West and pass over Yaeyama Islands or in between
Okinawa and Taiwan Wednesday afternoon (Aug 10). The
Eye shall pass about 180 km South of Kadena Air Base
around 4 PM local time Wednesday (Aug 9). SAOMAI shall
make landfall along the Zhejiang-Fujian border in
Southeastern China early morning Friday (Aug 11) and
dissipate over Anhui Province Saturday (Aug 12).

+ EFFECTS: SAOMAI's circulation remains over the open
waters of the Western Pacific and is currently not
affecting any land mass at this time.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Southwest Monsoon
being enhanced by this typhoon is currently bringing
widespread rains, gusty winds and strong thunderstorms
across Western Micronesia (Palau, Yap, Ulithi, etc).
Moderate SW Monsoon now starting to move across Pala-
wan, Sulu Sea, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao.
Cloudy weather conditions with light to moderate or
sometimes rainfall can be expected. Southwesterly
winds of 30 km/hr may be expected.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Tropical Storm MARIA (09W)
moving towards Shikoku & Honshu (Japan). Current
position: 29.2N 139.2E or approx 715 km SE of Kochi,
Japan,..Max sustained winds is at 110 km/hr...moving
NW at 20 km/hr. Forecast to make landfall Wednesday
morning along Shikoku-Honshu Area. Residents along
those areas must take precautionary measures.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 07 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.5º N...LONGITUDE 139.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 695 KM (375 NM) NW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 520 KM (280 NM) EAST OF P.A.R.
DISTANCE 3: 1,850 KM (1000 NM) EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 28 KM/HR (15 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 705 KM (380 NM)/LARGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM PST MON AUGUST 07
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 18.7N 138.1E / 140-165 KPH

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 20.7N 135.8E / 160-195 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 23.7N 130.5E / 195-240 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST POSITION: 17.1N 140.5E.
^A SATELLITE MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTED A ROUND EYE WITH A
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFI-
CANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND TY SAOMAI CONTINUES
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING IN-
FLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
THIS IS THE SAME STEERING MECHANISM INFLUENCING THE
TRACK OF TS MARIA WHICH REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF TY
SAOMAI. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD
AFTER 36 HRS AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
(CONCURRENT WITH THE POLEWARD TURN IN TS
MARIA)...(more info)

>> SAOMAI {pronounced: sao~mai}, meaning: Name of planet
Venus. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh....noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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