Friday, September 22, 2006

Super Typhoon YAGI (16W) now passing close to Iwo Jima... [Update #011]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011
Name: SUPER TYPHOON YAGI [16W/0614] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 22 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 23 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
SUPER TYPHOON YAGI (16W) HOLDING ON TO ITS 260-KM/HR WINDS
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST...EYE NOW PASSING CLOSE TO IWO JIMA
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YAGI is expected to maintain its Cate-
gory 5 status for the next 12 hours with a track more to-
wards the NNW. Tomorrow morning, YAGI shall start turning
to the North, just to the west of Bonin Islands and weakens.
The 2 to 3-day (Sep 24-25) Long Range Forecast shows the
system recurving to the NE - sparing Kyushu, Japan on a
direct hit. This dangerous typhoon will enter an environ-
ment of increasing wind shear and lower sea surface tempe-
ratures (SSTs), thus, gradual weakening can be expected
and eventually losing its tropical characteristics by
Monday (Sep 25), becoming an Extratropical Cyclone. All
interests in Iwo Jima-Bonin Islands & Honshu should con-
tinue closely monitoring the progress of this super
typhoon.
All interests in Iwo Jima-Bonin Islands & Honshu
should continue closely monitoring the progress of this
super typhoon
. 

+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's inner bands continues to affect
Iwo Jima & Bonin Islands, with its eyewall passing in
between these islands. Intense typhoon conditions at this
moment until early morning tomorrow will be felt as the
core passes by. Dangerous storm tides with large battering
waves will prevail along the coastal areas of Iwo Jima &
Bonin Islands & Kyushu, Japan today until Sunday (Sep 24)
...Coastal Storm Surge flooding of greater than 18 feet
is most likely to occur near YAGI's core
.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/
96W/1006 mb) over the South China Sea is likely to develop
into a Tropical Depression later tonight or tomorrow. This
system was located about 765 km WSW of Manila (13.0N
114.1E)...drifting SW during the past 6 hours w/ winds of
35 km/hr. All interests in Spratlys and Vietnam should
monitor the progress of this developing disturbance.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 25.6º N...LONGITUDE 142.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 125 KM (68 NM) NE OF IWO JIMA ISLAND
DISTANCE 2:  1,150 KM (620 NM) SSE OF TOKYO, JAPAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 260 KM/HR (140 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 315 KM/HR (170 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FIVE (5)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 898 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA-BONIN ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 42 FEET (12.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TIME FRI SEPTEMBER 22
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEP: 27.5N 141.5E / 240-295 KPH / NNW @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 SEP: 30.2N 141.8E / 230-280 KPH / N @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 24 SEP: 35.8N 146.6E / 175-205 KPH / NE @ 35 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 25.0N 142.5E.
^STY YAGI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU. STY YAGI IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE BY 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. STY YAGI IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR 48 HOURS.
..(more info)

>> YAGI {pronounced: ya~gi}, meaning:
Capricornus (goat). 
   
Name contributed by: Japan

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.......noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on STY YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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