Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SHANSHAN (LUIS) almost a Typhoon... [Update #03]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #03

Name: TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 11 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 12 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
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TROPICAL STORM SHANSHAN (LUIS)
HAS SLOWED DOWN OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS AS IT NEARS TYPHOON STATUS...STILL HEADING
FOR TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue moving
NW'ly for the next 12 hours, becoming a Typhoon later tonight.
It shall turn more to the West or WNW tomorrow morning due to
a building High Pressure north of the system. The 3 to 5-day
Long Range Forecast (Sep 14-16) shows the system in a slow
WNW to NW track before turning North Friday afternoon and
shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa, Japan Saturday
afternoon.

+ EFFECTS: N/A.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently
enhanced by a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the South China
Sea and is currently bringing cloudy skies with occasional
rains & thunderstorms across Luzon becoming more frequent
along the western sections including Metro Manila.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The broad Tropical Disturbance (LPA/
95W/1006 mb) over the South China Sea continues to move closer
to Southern China. Its loose center was estimated about 435 km
NW of Laoag City (20.2N 116.9E)...it was moving West at 20 kph
towards the Southern China.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch
changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.0º N...LONGITUDE 133.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,200 KM (648 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 1,175 KM (635 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 1,215 KM (655 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,365 KM (735 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.4 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 480 KM (260 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MON SEPTEMBER 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.8N 132.4E / 120-150 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 131.3E / 130-160 KPH

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 21.3N 129.1E / 150-185 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.7N 133.3E.
^TS SHANSHAN IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWES-
TERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STEERING
RIDGE. AROUND 24 HOURS, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 18.5N 133.6E / NW @ 11 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh...noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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