Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SHANSHAN (LUIS) heads for Kyushu, Japan...[Update #013]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013

Name: TYPHOON SHANSHAN [LUIS/14W/0613]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 16 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 17 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #026
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POWERFUL TYPHOON SHANSHAN (LUIS) NOW AIMING DANGEROUSLY
TOWARDS WESTERN KYUSHU-SOUTH KOREA AREA...OUTER RAIN
BANDS POUNDING YAEYAMA-OKINAWA-RYUKYU ISLANDS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SHANSHAN is expected to continue acce-
lerating NNE to NE for the 2 days, passing about 200 km
WNW of Okinawa late tonight...weakening gradually tomorrow
as it moves into an area of increasing upper level winds
(aka. Wind Shear) and cooler sea surface temperatures. The
typhoon is forecast to pass very close to Sasebo, Japan to-
morrow Sunday evening affecting the main Japanese Island of
Kyushu. It shall move across the Korean Strait early Monday
morning (Sep 18), transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone
over the Sea of Japan Monday afternoon. All interests in
South Korea & the main Japanese Island of Kyushu should
closely monitor the progress of this dangerous typhoon.

+ EFFECTS: The typhoon's outer bands currently affecting the
Islands of Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu...Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
likely to within its inner bands tonight. Moderate to heavy
rains with damaging typhoon-force winds in excess of 100
km/hr can be expected along its inner bands with diminishing
winds and rains over its outer bands. Precautionary measures
must be fully implemented, along the affected areas. South-
eastern China, South Korea and Kyushu, Japan are located
along the storm's outer-most circulation. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near and to the north of where the center pass by.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon

has weakened considerably.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The active Tropical Disturbance
(LPA/96W/1006 mb) over the Eastern Marianas has been relo-
cated and was estimated about 1,150 km NE of Saipan (18.6N
155.9E)...currently moving ENE over the past 6 hours, with
sustained winds of 35 km/hr. This disturbance will be

closely monitored for further development into a
Tropical Depression within a day or two.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 26.5º N...LONGITUDE 125.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 280 KM (150 NM) WEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 2: 395 KM (213 NM) ENE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 3: 765 KM (413 NM) SW OF KAGOSHIMA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 4: 790 KM (427 NM) SSW OF CHEJU ISLAND

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: KYUSHU, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM HKT TIME SAT SEPTEMBER 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 28.3N 126.3E / 195-240 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 31.3N 128.2E / 175-215 KPH

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 38.3N 134.1E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 25.9N 124.8E.
^TY SHANSHAN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SPEED TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AS A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER EASTERN CHINA INTERACTS WITH THE SYSTEM. TY SHANSHAN
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH FURTHER SPEED
INCREASES AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS AND BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS...(more info)

>> SHANSHAN {pronounced: sarn~sarn}, meaning: A fairly
common pet name for young girls. Name contributed
by: Hong Kong, China
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 26.3N 125.0E / NNE @ 22 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SHANSHAN (LUIS)...go visit
our website @:

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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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