Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Typhoon YAGI (16W) continues to intensify...[Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON YAGI [16W/0614] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 19 SEPTEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 20 SEPTEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
  
TYPHOON YAGI (16W) RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY TWO
WITH WINDS OF 165 KM/HR...DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: YAGI is expected to move Westward for
the next 2 days & intensify. By Thursday morning (Sep 21),
YAGI shall turn more to the WNW and move in the direction
of Iwo Jima Island. The 3 to 5-day (Sep 22-24) Long Range
Forecast shows the system moving NW'ly, turning more Nor-
therly and passing some 185 km to the NE of Iwo Jima Is-
land Friday evening (Sep 23) & approaching the Southeas-
tern Coast of Honshu Sunday afternoon (Sep 24) as a strong
Category 4 Typhoon (est. 215 km/hr). All interests in
Iwo Jima, Northernmost Marianas & Southeastern Japan
should closely monitor the progress of this developing
tropical cyclone. 

+ EFFECTS: At this moment, YAGI is not yet affecting any
Western Pacific islands.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.0º N...LONGITUDE 158.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 650 KM (350 NM) SE OF MARCUS ISLAND
DISTANCE 2:  1,435 KM (775 NM) NE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,615 KM (870 NM) NE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 4: 1,825 KM (985 NM) ESE OF IWO JIMA ISLAND
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TIME TUE SEPTEMBER 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEP: 19.9N 157.2E / 175-215 KPH / ..........
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEP: 19.9N 155.1E / 185-230 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEP: 20.9N 149.2E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.0N 158.7E.
^TY YAGI HAS TAKEN A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLU-
ENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
HONSHU, WHICH HAS BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
48 HOURS, AFTER WHICH TY YAGI WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHWEST-
WARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EARLY IN THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD...(more info)

>> YAGI {pronounced: ya~gi}, meaning: Capricornus (goat). 
   Name contributed by: Japan
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


Track Source: The Weather Underground Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh...noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY YAGI (16W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
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Posted by MJ Klein at 20:15

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