Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL STORM SOULIK [21W/0618]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 10 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 11 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
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Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 11 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #006
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TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) INTENSIFYING AS IT SLOWS
DOWN WHILE MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA
ISLANDS.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND
IWO JIMA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TS
SOULIK.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND
IWO JIMA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TS
SOULIK.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to continue moving
WNW for the next 2 to 3 days passing to the north of Agri-
han tomorrow Wednesday evening (Oct 11) and south of Iwo
Jima Thursday evening (Oct 12) as a 120-km/hr Category 1
Typhoon. The 3 to 5-day long range forecast (Oct 13-16)
shows SOULIK intensifying into a Category 2 Typhoon with
projected winds of 165 km/hr and turning Westward that
could bring a major threat to Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
early next week.
+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's western outer rainbands now spreading
across Northernmost Marianas including Saipan. Light to
moderate rainfall associated with passing squalls & in-
creasing wind speeds of not more than 50 km/hr can be
expected over the affected islands tonight & tomorrow.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Westerly windflow enhanced
by SOULIK is currently bringing cloudy skies with rain-
showers across the Marianas, Carolines and Micronesia.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 10 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.8º N...LONGITUDE 151.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 745 KM (403 NM) NE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 940 KM (508 NM) NE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,255 KM (678 NM) SE OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 4: 3,095 KM (1,670 NM) EAST OF CAGAYAN, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AGRIHAN-IWO JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 465 KM (250 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST TUE OCTOBER 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 11 OCT: 19.6N 149.7E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 11 OCT: 20.7N 147.0E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCT: 22.6N 142.0E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.5N 152.3E.
^TS SOULIK (21W) IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED NORTH OF WAKE
ISLAND. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE STR TO RE-ORIENT
AND STEER TS 21W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS.
AROUND 72 HOURS, ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH OF TS SOULIK, CAUSING THE TRACK TO TEMPO-
RARILY SHIFT POLEWARD BEFORE RETURNING TO A WESTERLY
TRACK...(more info)
>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei
Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia
____________
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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