Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TROPICAL STORM SOULIK [21W/0618]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 11 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 12 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 12 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
____________
TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ALMOST A TYPHOON AS IT TURNS
WESTERLY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH OF IWO JIMA ISLAND.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA, RYUKYUS (OKINAWA) AND
SOUTHWESTERN JAPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF SOULIK.
WESTERLY CLOSER TO THE SOUTH OF IWO JIMA ISLAND.
...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA, RYUKYUS (OKINAWA) AND
SOUTHWESTERN JAPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF SOULIK.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to continue moving
WNW for the next 24 hours passing to the south of Iwo Jima
tomorrow noontime, Thursday (Oct 12) as a 130-km/hr Category
1 Typhoon and then tracking WSW during the 48-hour timeframe.
The 3 to 5-day long range forecast (Oct 14-16) shows SOULIK
slowing down rapidly & intensifying into a Category 4 Typhoon
with projected winds of 215 km/hr. The long range forecast
continues to be blurred as some computer models still
suggests a sudden SW track into the Philippine Sea, while
others depict a continued WNW to a Northward turn that may
threaten Southwestern (SW) Japan next week. Remember that
these forecasts are bound for large errors espcially the
long-range. Please read important note below.
+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's southern inner bands continues to affect
Agrihan Island, bringing moderate to heavy rains with wes-
terly winds of not more than 75 km/hr. Meanwhile, the rest
of the Marianas including Saipan and Guam will continue to
be under the influence of its outer bands. These outer bands
shall bring light to moderate rainfall associated with pa-
ssing squalls & increasing Westerly to SW winds of not more
than 50 km/hr overnight.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong westerly & southwesterly
windflow enhanced by SOULIK continues to bring cloudy skies
with rainshowers & thunderstorms across the Marianas,
Carolines and Micronesia.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The small Tropical Disturbance
(91W/LPA/1006 mb) over the Philippine Sea has remained weak
and was located about 1,155 km. East of Casiguran, Aurora
(16.1N 132.9E)...with sustained winds of 30 km/hr...drifting
WSW. This disturbance will be closely monitored for further
development.
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 11 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.7º N...LONGITUDE 144.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 630 KM (340 NM) NNW OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 815 KM (440 NM) NORTH OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 545 KM (295 NM) SSE OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 4: 2,310 KM (1,248 NM) EAST OF BATANES, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO JIMA-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 705 KM (380 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST WED OCTOBER 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 12 OCT: 21.4N 142.1E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCT: 22.1N 140.3E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCT: 22.2N 137.9E / 165-205 KPH / WSW @ 09 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.5N 144.9E.
^RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION, SUPPORTING A
RELOCATION 100 KM (APPROX) TO THE WEST. TS SOULIK (21W) IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTRO-
PICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. THE STR
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 36 HOURS,
CAUSING TS SOULIK TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AROUND 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH COMPETING INFLUENCES OF THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST,
A MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, AND ANOTHER
STR TO THE WEST...(more info)
>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei
Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia
____________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TS SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe
SPONSORED LINKS
.
__,_._,___
No comments:
Post a Comment