Wednesday, October 04, 2006

TS BEBINCA (NENENG) - Update #005


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA [NENENG/19W/0616] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 03 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 04 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (NENENG) FIGHTS FOR LIFE AS IT EN-
COUNTERS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE PHILI-
PPINE SEA..NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

*PAGASA 10-min sustained winds remained at 85-km/hr...All
interests in Luzon, Batanes, Taiwan, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
& Southern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of
this storm.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BEBINCA is expected to turn & drift
Northerly for the next 24 hours, with a more NNE'ly track
within 48 hours with forecast wind speed of 110 km/hr, be-
coming a typhoon later. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecasts
(Oct 6-8) shows the system accelerating and recurving more
to the NE in the direction of Southern Japan with forecast
wind speeds of 150 km/hr by Sunday, Oct 8.
 

+ EFFECTS: BEBINCA's large circulation continues to affect
Eastern Coastline of the Philippines...The Western Outer
Bands of this storm are currently spreading across the
coastal areas of Bicol Region, Samar, Leyte, Cagayan,
Isabela, Quirino & Aurora Provinces. This could bring
mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate rainfall &
winds of not more than 50 km/hr tonight
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.4º N...LONGITUDE 130.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 890 KM (480 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA
DISTANCE 2: 1,005 KM (542 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA
DISTANCE 3: 695 KM (375 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES
DISTANCE 4: 800 KM (432 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 925 KM (500 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM HKT TUE OCTOBER 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:

#01 - CAMARINES PROVINCES, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, CATAN-
      DUANES, AURORA, QUIRINO, ISABELA & CAGAYAN.

           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCT: 16.1N 130.2E / 75-95 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCT: 17.2N 130.2E / 85-100 KPH / NORTH @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCT: 20.0N 131.3E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.2N 130.5E.
^TS 19W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE COMBINED
INFLUENCES OF A BUILDING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH-
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA, WHICH HAS CREATED A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THE TRACK OF 19W REMAINS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE MOTION OF THE PARENT MONSOON DEPRESSION.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A STEADY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE. THUS, THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
..
.(more info)

>> BEBINCA {pronounced: be~bin~ca}, meaning: Milk Pudding. 
   
Name contributed by: Macau

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 15.1N 127.6E / WNW @ 07 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 19W (NENENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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