Saturday, October 14, 2006

Typhoon SOULIK (21W) now slowly moving away from Iwo Jima...[Update #011]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011
Name: TYPHOON SOULIK [21W/0618] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 14 OCTOBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 15 OCTOBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
THE LARGE EYE OF TYPHOON SOULIK (21W) NOW LEAVING
IWO JIMA AS ITS SOUTHERN EYEWALL MOVES IN.
 

...ALL INTERESTS IN THE IWO JIMA AND SOUTHERN JAPAN 
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SOULIK.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SOULIK is expected to began acce-
lerating Northerly to NNE'ly for the next 24 to 48
hours and weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm. The
large eye shall pass close to Bonin Island tomorrow
morning (Sunday, Oct 15). The 3-day long-range fore-
cast (Oct 17) shows SOULIK rapidly accelerating to-
wards the ENE and becoming an Extratropical Cyclone
by Tuesday, Oct 18. This forecast track of Soulik
clearly shows that no major islands will get affec-
ted by this system


+ EFFECTS: SOULIK's large Eye is now leaving Iwo Jima.
The resumption of typhoon conditions will start any
moment now, with the arrival of very strong SW'ly to
Westerly winds in excess of 120 km/hr accompanied with
very heavy rainfall that could last for 6 hours. Mean-
while, Bonin Island continues to be under its inner
bands. Strong winds of not more than 100 km/hr with
moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected tonight
until tomorrow. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to
8 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves will continue to prevail for
the next 12 hours along Iwo Jima and nearby islands.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: Westerly & South-
westerly windflow associated with the Monsoon Trough
(a.k.a. ITCZ) enhanced by SOULIK continues to bring
cloudy skies with rainshowers & thunderstorms across
the Marianas which now extends across the Southern
Philippines.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 14 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 25.2º N...LONGITUDE 141.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30 NM) NW OF IWO JIMA
DISTANCE 2: 1,310 KM (707 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 2,015 KM (1,088 NM) ENE OF BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 954 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BONIN ISLANDS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 850 KM (460 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 37 FEET (11.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST SAT OCTOBER 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCT: 26.2N 141.2E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCT: 28.7N 142.4E / 140-165 KPH / NNE @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCT: 34.6N 150.6E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 45 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCTOBER POSITION: 24.8N 140.9E.
^TY Soulik (21W) is currently located in a weak steering
environment between the subtropical ridge (str) to the
east and another str to the west. These competing steering
influences will keep TY 21w nearly quasi-stationary through 
24 hours, when the str to the west weakens and the eastern
ridge becomes the dominant steering influence. As TY Soulik
moves north-northeastward and rounds the axis of the str, a
mid-latitude low pressure trough will approach from the west
and begin extratropical transition of the system around 
48 hours..
.(more info)

>> SOULIK {pronounced: sow~lick}, meaning: Traditional Pohnpei 
   Chief's title. Name contributed by: Micronesia

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SOULIK (21W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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