Saturday, November 11, 2006

Typhoon CHEBI (QUEENIE) weakens as it crosses Central Luzon... [Update #005]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON CHEBI [QUEENIE/23W/0620] 
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SAT 11 NOVEMBER 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 11 NOVEMBER 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON CHEBI (QUEENIE) WEAKENS DOWN TO CATEGORY 3 AS IT
ENCOUNTERS LAND INTERACTION AND LACK OF WARM MOISTURE
WHICH THE STORM GETS FROM THE SEA
...NOW MOVING ACROSS
PANGASINAN.

...ITS TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO SUPER TYPHOON CIMARON
(PAENG) WHICH CROSSED THE SAME AREA EXACTLY 2 WEEKS AGO...
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TYPHOON CHEBI.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHEBI is expected to continue tracking
Westward for the next 12 hours passing over Dagupan City
at around 12-1 PM this afternoon. Chebi's center is expec-
ted to move out into the South China Sea thru Dasol Bay-
Rena Point area, Pangasinan or along the Western Coast of
Luzon after sunset today (between 6 to 7 PM). The 2 to
5-day long-range forecast (Nov 13 to 16) shows the system
moving away from the Philippines and traversing the South
China Sea. This typhoon shall weaken as it makes its 2nd
landfall over Eastern Vietnam by Thursday early morning
Nov 16.
 

+ EFFECTS: CHEBI's circulation continues to cover Central
& Northern Luzon, with its weakening core moving across
Eastern Pangasinan - bringing typhoon conditions over
the area, while its inner bands spreads across the pro-
vinces of Benguet, La Union, Tarlac, Zambales, Ifugao,
Nueva Ecija and Nueva Vizcaya. Rains and winds of not
in excess of 100 kph can be expected today. Outer bands
affecting the rest of Northern and Central Luzon inclu-
ding Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal & Calayan Is-
lands. Cloudy conditions associated with thunderstorms
and passing rains w/ winds of not in excess of 50 km/hr
today. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of more than 9 to
12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves can be expected over the Wes-
tern Coast of Luzon particularly Pangasinan, Zambales
and La Union after sunset as the center moves onshore
off the South China Sea
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 11 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.0º N...LONGITUDE 120.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 45 KM (25 NM) OF EAST OF DAGUPAN CITY
DISTANCE 2: 45 KM (25 NM) SOUTH OF BAGUIO CITY
DISTANCE 3: 65 KM (35 NM) NW OF CABANATUAN CITY
DISTANCE 4: 160 KM (85 NM) NNW OF METRO MANILA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 938 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PANGASINAN-SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 29 FEET (8.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 11 AM PST SAT NOVEMBER 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - ISABELA, AURORA, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, BENGUET, NUEVA
      ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, TARLAC 
      AND ZAMBALES.

#02 -
NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO IS., ILOCOS SUR, MT. PRO-
      VINCE, KALINGA, SOUTHERN CAGAYAN, PAMPANGA, BULACAN 
      AND BATAAN.

#01 - METRO MANILA, REST OF CAGAYAN, CALAYAN GROUP, 
      APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, REST OF QUEZON, 
      CAMARINES NORTE, CAVITE, LAGUNA AND RIZAL
.
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 11 NOV: 15.7N 119.6E / 165-205 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 12 NOV: 15.6N 117.8E / 185-230 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 13 NOV: 15.8N 114.5E / 165-205 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 NOVEMBER POSITION: 15.9N 121.6E.
^TY Chebi will continue to track westward along the southern
periphery of the mid-to-upper-level subtropical ridge (str)
through 36 hours. After 48 hours, the western extension of
the str will weaken, causing TY Chebi to begin a gradual
turn poleward along the southwestern periphery of the
str...(more info)

>> CHEBI {pronounced: je~bi}, meaning: A swallow. A small 
   bird with long wings and a forked tail that eats insects, 
   which visits Korea in Spring. Name contributed by: 
   Republic of Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Nueva Ecija: Ongoing til 12NN today
+ Pangasinan-La Union: 12NN til 6PM today

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon.
It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found.
EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and
heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning
synopsis is issued.
Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this
for life or death decisions.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 11 NOVEMBER: 15.9N 121.1E / W @ 17 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red bold letters indicate new 
      areas being hoisted.
For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CHEBI (QUEENIE)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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