Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Typhoon USAGI (05W) - Update #02


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002 
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 30 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #008
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD...THREAT TO JAPAN CONTINUES
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI is expected to continue moving towards
the NW for the next 2 to 3 days in the direction of Southwestern
Japan particularly Shikoku and Western Honshu. The advance 3 to
5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI turning more Northerly,
becoming a Category 4 system with winds of 230 km/hr before
making landfall over the western part of Shikoku Thursday eve-
ning, Aug 2. It shall then traverse Western Honshu Friday mor-
ning, Aug 3 - passing very close to Hiroshima, Japan. USAGI shall
be off the Northwestern coast of Honshu or over the Sea of Japan
Friday afternoon Aug 3


+ EFFECTS: USAGI over-all circulation continues to expand
with its Eastern outermost bands still affecting the
Agrihan and other small islands of Northernmost Mariana
.

+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 30 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.3º N...LONGITUDE 141.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 735 KM (397 NM) NW OF SAIPAN
DISTANCE 2: 500 KM (270 NM) SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 2,020 KM (1,090 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 650 KM (350 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST MON JULY 30
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 JULY: 21.4N 139.9E / 165-205 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 JULY: 23.1N 138.3E / 185-230 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 26.9N 134.9E / 220-270 KPH / NNW @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 JULY POSITION: 20.0N 141.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND DEVELOPED
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DURING THAT PERIOD. TY USAGI HAS
TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTED A DEVELOPING
EYE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG IN OVER JAPAN,
WHICH HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN, AIDING IN
THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
INFLUENCED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARD A WEAK-
NESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE..
.(more info)

>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
  
Name contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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