Saturday, August 04, 2007

TD 06W - Update #02


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002 
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [UNNAMED] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 04 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 04 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (UNNAMED) BARELY MOVING OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDS STARTING TO WRAP
AROUND ITS CENTER...RAINS AND WINDS CONTINUES TO AFFECT
CENTRAL VIETNAM.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 06W is expected to drift to the NW in
the direction of Hainan-Northern Vietnam area. The 2 to
3-day forecast shows 06W accelerating slightly NW-ward and
becoming a minimal Tropical Storm early tomorrow morning,
Aug 5. It shall be off the SW Coast of Hainan Island early
Tuesday morning, Aug 7


+ EFFECTS: 06W's circulation especially the western outer
bands continues to spread across Central Vietnam, bringing
moderate to heavy rains with moderate winds across the area.
Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks,
low-lying and mountainous areas of the affected areas of
Central Vietnam. Precautionary measures must be implemented
on the possible effects of this depression
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY:  Southwest (SW) Monsoon now being
enhanced by a developing LPA over the Philippine Sea & TD 06W
located over the South China Sea...Cloudy skies with possible
intermittent passing rains or thunderstorms with SW'ly winds
of 10 km/hr or higher can be expected along the western sec-
tions of Visayas & Mindanao particularly Western Zamboanga,
Palawan, Western Panay & Western Negros. This monsoon system
may reach Luzon next week.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH:  The European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to forecast the
formation of a Tropical Cyclone around August 7 or 8
. During
the latest run of the model forecast at 8 PM Aug 03, it showed
the system forming over the Philippine Sea, just to the East
of Luzon - then heading WNW to NW in the direction of Taiwan-
Okinawa-Eastern China area as a Tropical Storm between Aug 9
to 10
. This potential storm shall enhance the Southwest Mon-
soon and bring moderate to heavy rains over Luzon particu-
larly the western portions.
If this happens, it may bring
relief to the dry areas of Luzon particularly over Angat Dam
and other reservoirs.
This scenario remains supported by the
Global Tropics Benefits/Hazard Assessment of NOAA. Watch out
for continued updates on this potential system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 04 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.9º N...LONGITUDE 112.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 440 KM (240 NM) NE OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 2: 560 KM (300 NM) SE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 3: 600 KM (325 NM) SSE OF SANYA, HAINAN IS.
DISTANCE 4: 890 KM (480 NM) WSW OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 02 KM/HR (01 KT)
GENERAL DIRECTION: HAINAN-NORTHERN VIETNAM AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HKT SAT AUGUST 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 14.1N 112.7E / 55-75 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 14.8N 112.0E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 16.5N 110.2E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 13.8N 113.0E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (NONAME) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION
HAS FLARED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT HAS
BEEN QUICKLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE STORM HAS
TRACKED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED COMPETING STEE-
RING INFLUENCES OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTH-
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM..
.(more info)

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh..noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD 06W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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