Friday, August 03, 2007

TS USAGI (05W) - Final Update


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010 **FINAL**
Name: TROPICAL STORM USAGI [05W/0705] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 03 AUGUST 2007
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #024
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
USAGI (05W) WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...TO BECOME
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW.

**THIS IS THE FINAL UPDATE ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER
  REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W FOR MORE UPDATES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI will continue accelerating to-
wards the NE to ENE'ly as it becomes Extratropical Cyclone
in 24 hours. The 36-hour forecast shows the system moving
fast across the Sea of Japan and becoming Extratropical
upon crossing Hokkaido, Japan tomorrow afternoon, Aug 4


+ EFFECTS: USAGI's circulation continues to weaken and re-
mains over the Sea of Japan. Inner bands continues to spread
across the coast of NW Honshu...while its outer bands spreads
across the Sea of Japan, Southwestern Japan & Northern Hon-
shu. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river
banks, low-lying and mountainous areas of the affected areas
of SW Japan
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon is now
starting to be enhanced by a developing LPA over the Pacific
Ocean north of Palau Island & TD 06W...Cloudy skies with po-
ssible intermittent passing rains or thunderstorms with SW'ly
winds of 10 km/hr or higher can be expected along the western
sections of Visayas & Mindanao particularly Western Zamboanga,
Palawan, Western Panay & Western Negros. This monsoon system
is expected to reach Luzon next week.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to forecast the formation
of a Tropical Cyclone around August 7 or 8. During the latest
run of the model forecast (8 AM Aug 03), it showed the system
forming over the Philippine Sea, just to the East of Luzon -
then heading WNW to NW in the direction of Taiwan as a Tro-
pical Storm between Aug 9 to 10. This potential storm shall
enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring moderate to heavy
rains over Luzon particularly the western portions. If this
happens, it may bring relief to the dry areas of Luzon par-
ticularly over Angat Dam and other reservoirs. This scenario
remains supported by the Global Tropics Benefits/Hazard
Assessment of NOAA. Watch out for continued updates on
this potential systems
.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 03 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 37.9º N...LONGITUDE 134.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 360 KM (195 NM) NNE OF OKAYAMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 405 KM (220 NM) WEST OF NIIGATA, JAPAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 37 KM/HR (20 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SEA OF JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 PM JST FRI AUGUST 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 39.9N 137.3E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 39 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 42.0N 142.1E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 42 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 43.4N 148.0E / 55-75 KPH / ENE @ 42 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 03 AUGUST POSITION: 37.2N 133.6E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W - DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON -
EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AFTER CROSSING SOUTH-
WESTERN HONSHU. THE STORM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT WATER VAPOR
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT
DISSIPATION OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE STORM CENTER HAS INDUCED EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION..
.(more info)

>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit)
  
Name contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh..noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
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http://www.maybagyo.com

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