Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Typhoon SEPAT (EGAY) nears Luzon... [Update #005]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TYPHOON SEPAT [EGAY/09W/0708] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 15 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 15 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #011
_______________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON SEPAT (EGAY) CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH...NOW A
CATEGORY THREE SYSTEM WITH WINDS OF 185 KM/HR...STILL
MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE
SEA...NOW A MAJOR THREAT TO EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON AND
TAIWAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SEPAT is expected to turn Westward for
the next 6 hours before heading on a abrupt NW'ly track
tonight. This system may reach Category 4 or almost a Super
Typhoon with prjected wind speed of 230 km/hr around Friday
morning, Aug 17. It shall pass close to the NE of Batanes
Group of Islands by Friday evening. The 3 to 5-day forecast
shows SEPAT weakening slightly as it moves over the Southern
Coast of Taiwan early Saturday morning, Aug 18 and make land-
fall over Southern Taiwan around 7-8 AM HK time (Sat Aug 18).
It shall be off SE China (2nd landfall) as a weakened minimal
Typhoon on Sunday afternoon, Aug 19

+ EFFECTS: SEPAT circulation has expanded with its western-
most outer bands now spreading across Bicol Region and Eastern
Visayas. Cloudy periods with passing occasionally light to
sometimes heavy rainfall can be expected along these bands.
Winds will be light to moderate with battering waves along
the coast of Eastern Philippines.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon now
being enhanced (pulled) slowly by SEPAT. Cloudy skies with
passing light occasional rains with SW'ly winds of 20 km/hr
or higher can be expected today along Visayas and Mindanao -
becoming more frequent over the Western sections. The SW
Monsoon is likely to reach Western Luzon tomorrow or
Friday. Stay tuned.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 15 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.6º N...LONGITUDE 128.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 720 KM (390
NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 2: 790 KM (427 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 825 KM (445 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 4: 910 KM (490 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 630 KM (340 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 34 FEET (10.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
           
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 AUGUST: 15.6N 128.0E / 205-250 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 AUGUST: 16.4N 127.0E / 220-270 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 AUGUST: 19.4N 124.1E / 230-280 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 AUGUST POSITION: 15.6N 129.1E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 09W (SEPAT) HAS INTENSIFIED 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE
A CLOUD-FILLED, 12-NM RAGGED EYE WITHIN A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
MASS THAT MEASURES APPROXIMATLEY 130 NM ACROSS. A MICROWAVE
SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THIS EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AS THE DEEP STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH CONTINUED TO BUILD WESTWARD
...(more)

>> SEPAT {pronounced: se~pa~t}, meaning: A fresh water fish 
   with small climbing perch, is often found in rivers, swampy
   areas with a lot of weeds and paddy fields. Name contributed 
   by:
Malaysia.

_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 AUGUST: 15.8N 128.9E / WEST @ 15 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website 
   at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________


RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Page (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY SEPAT (EGAY)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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