Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon KROSA (INENG) approaching Northern Taiawn... [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: SUPER TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 06 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 06 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 018
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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SUPER TYPHOON KROSA (INENG) APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF TAIWAN...

INNER RAIBANDS AFFECTING YAEYAMA ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF

TAIWAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to continue moving NW'ly at a

faster pace, with its EYE passing over the Northern tip of Taiwan

tonight. Dangerous Eyewall will affect Northern Taiwan including Taipei

late this afternoon. The EYE shall pass about 30 km to the NE of Taipei

around 11 PM tonight before turning poleward (North) towards the coast

of SE China. During its approach to Northern Taiwan, KROSA shall weaken

to a Category 3 system due to land interaction. The 2 to 5-day forecast

shows the typhoon slowing down off the coast of Zhejiang, China as it

starts tracking towards the NE in the direction South Korea on Monday

til Tuesday (Oct 8-9). KROSA shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm

as it starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone sometime Wed-

nesday, Oct 10 while traversing the waters of the East China Sea.

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's NE EyeWall lashing the Yaeyama group of islands

while its inner rainbands now moving in across the Eastern parts of

Taiwan. Typhoon-force winds with very heavy rains can be expected

within the Eyewall while Tropical Storm-Force winds not exceeding 100

kph and intermittent rainfall can be expected along its inner rain-

bands. Meanwhile, Krosa's outer rainbands continues to spread across

Taiwan and Extreme Northern Luzon and is now extending over SE China

and Okinawa. Cloudy skies with passing light to moderate and sometimes

heavy downpour can be expected along its outer bands. Coastal Storm

Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...along with

large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the

north of KROSA's projected path particularly over Taiwan & Yaeyama

Islands. Extreme damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-

fetched storm surge is possible along the SE Coast of China, Okinawa

and the Northern coastal stretch of the Philippines. Flash floods and

mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-lying and mountainous

regions of the affected areas. Precautionary measures must be initia-

ted especially along the path of this monster typhoon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate Southwest (SW)Monsoon enhanced

by Super Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring mostly cloudy

skies with possible intermittent rains & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or

higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent over Mindoro,

Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, Batangas, Calamian Group, Lubang Island,

Marinduque, Bondoc Peninsula, Burias & Ticao Islands, Masbate & Western

Bicol. Landslides and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas,

while big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the

coastal and beach-front areas of Western Visayas and Western Luzon.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ

(Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms

most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 06 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 23.2º N...LONGITUDE 123.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 220 KM (120 NM) ESE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 2: 285 KM (155 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 3: 345 KM (187 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 570 KM (308 NM) NNE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 5: 575 KM (310 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 295 KM/HR (160 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 926 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,205 KM (650 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 37 FEET (11.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT OCTOBER 06
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#01 - BABUYAN AND CALAYAN ISLANDS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 24.2N 122.6E / 220-270 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 25.5N 121.6E / 195-240 KPH / N @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 28.0N 121.9E / 160-195 KPH / NE @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER POSITION: 22.8N 124.0E.
^STY 17W (KROSA) HAS MAINTAINED SUPER TYPHOON STATUS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS
INDICATES A DECREASE IN CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE STORM. STY 17W HAS TAKEN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY JOG OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, AFTER TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE PREVIOUS 06 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE NET 24 HOUR MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NORTHWEST...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 23.0N 123.8E / NW @ 15 KPH / 185 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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