Sunday, October 07, 2007

Typhoon KROSA (INENG) heads for Fujian-Zhejiang... [Update #011]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011
Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 07 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 07 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 022
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON KROSA (INENG) LASHED THROUGH NORTHERN TAIWAN LAST NIGHT AND
IS NOW MOVING ALONG TAIWAN STRAIT...EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
OF FUJIAN PROVINCE THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNGRADED TO CATEGORY 2, WITH
WINDS OF 165 KM/HR.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to resume moving NW'ly with its
EYE passing over the beach front areas of Fujian Province this after-
noon. The 12 to 24-hour forecast shows KROSA weakening further upon
landfall off the Coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang Province early
tonight and shall turn NE back to sea or off the East China Sea
tomorrow morning

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's weakening EyeWall is now off Taiwan Strait and is
expected to affect the Coastal areas of SE China later this afternoon.
Its inner raibands continues to spread across the Chinese Provinces
of Fujian and Zhejiang and across Northwestern Taiwan. Typhoon-force
winds with very heavy rains can be expected within the Eyewall while
Tropical Storm-Force winds not exceeding 110 kph and intermittent
rainfall can be expected along its inner rainbands. Meanwhile, Krosa's
outer rainbands continues to spread across Taiwan, extending over other
portions of SE and Southern China. Cloudy skies with passing light to
moderate and sometimes heavy downpour can be expected along its outer
bands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expec-
ted near and to the north of KROSA's projected path particularly over
Taiwan & SE China. Moderate damage is possible on this type of storm
surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along Okinawa and Southern
China. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-
lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas. Precautionary
measures must be initiated especially along the path of this typhoon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weakening Southwest (SW)
Monsoon enhanced
by Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring mostly cloudy skies
with possible intermittent rains & SW'ly winds of 15 km/hr or higher
across Western Philippines. Landslides and flooding is likely to occur
along steep mountain slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or surges generated
by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of Wes-
tern Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines
is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered
rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: TWO SMALL TROPICAL STORMS NAMELY: 
HAIYAN AND PODUL HAS SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPED OVER THE OPEN SEAS
OF THE 
NORTHWEST PACIFIC...NOT A THREAT TO ANY LAND MASS...HAIYAN
ON THE 
OTHER HAND HAD DISSIPATED ALREADY, WHILE PODUL CONTINUES
TO MOVE
MOVE FAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 07 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 25.6º N...LONGITUDE 121.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 120 KM (65
NM) NW OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 210 KM (113 NM) NNW OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 145 KM (78 NM) ESE OF FUZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 4: 255 KM (137 NM) SOUTH OF WENZHOU, CHINA 
DISTANCE 5: 345 KM (185 NM) NORTH OF KAOSHIUNG, CHINA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: FUJIAN-ZHEJIANG PROVINCES
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 935 KM (505 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SUN OCTOBER 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 26.5N 119.7E / 130-160 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 27.7N 119.3E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 30.4N 120.0E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 OCTOBER POSITION: 25.6N 121.2E.
^TY 17W (KROSA) TRACKED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF CHINA. DURING THIS TIME,
TY 17W WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM A 115 KNOT SYSTEM TO 75 KNOTS.
THIS WEAKENING WAS CAUSED BY THE DISRUPTION OF THE INFLOW INTO THE
STORM, AS WELL AS, LAND INTERACTION AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. TY 17W TRACKED MORE WESTWARD THAN
FORECAST PREVIOUSLY DUE TO A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE STORM THAT IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST
CHINA SEA
...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 25.7N 121.1E / NORTH @ 20 KPH / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY KROSA (INENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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