Friday, October 05, 2007

Typhoon KROSA (INENG) may threaten Batanes... [Update #007]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 05 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 05 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 014
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
POWERFUL TYPHOON KROSA (INENG) HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE WEST...
INCREASES ITS DANGER TO BATANES AND TAIWAN...MORE STORM WARNING SIGNALS
RAISED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to resume moving NW'ly for the
next 24 to 48 hours. The chances of this howler becoming a Super Typhoon
remains high as of the moment. Krosa's large EYE shall make landfall just
north of Hualien City, Taiwan tomorrow afternoon around 4 PM local time
(08 GMT), traversing the mountainous region of Northern Taiwan tomorrow
night, passing about 55 km. SSW of Taipei before midnight. The system
shall exit Taiwan via Taiwan Strait early Sunday morning, Oct 7. The 3
to 5-day forecast shows KROSA slowing down as it moves onshore off SE
China, with its EYE making another landfall in between the cities of Fu-
zhou & Wenzhou early Monday morning Oct 8. Upon its 2nd landfall over SE
China, KROSA shall start to weaken rapidly, weakening to a Category 1
Typhoon and shall continue losing strength as it moves Northward. It
shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it passes near Shanghai
Wednesday morning Oct 10

+ EFFECTS: KROSA's outer rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of
Taiwan and Extreme Northern Luzon. Cloudy skies with passing light to mo-
derate and sometimes heavy downpour can be expected along Lekima's outer
bands...becoming more intense and windy as the inner rainbands approaches.
Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and
to the north of KROSA's projected path particularly over Taiwan. Extreme
damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge
is possible along the northern and eastern coastal stretch of the Phili-
ppines. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-
lying and mountainous regions of the affected areas. Precautionary mea-
sures must be initiated as the powerful typhoon approaches.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak to moderate Southwest (SW)
Monsoon
enhanced by Powerful Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring
mostly cloudy skies with possible intermittent rains & SW'ly winds of
15 km/hr or higher across Western Philippines becoming more frequent
over Batangas, Calamian Group, Mindoro, Boracay Island Resort, Romblon,
Lubang Island, Western Panay, Western Negros & Western Bicol. Landslides
and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain slopes, river
banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big
sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal
and beach-front areas of Western Visayas and Western Luzon. Meanwhile,
the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough),
which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in
the afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 05 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.5º N...LONGITUDE 125.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 355 KM (192
NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 455 KM (245 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 550 KM (297 NM) SE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 575 KM (310 NM) ESE OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN 
DISTANCE 5: 630 KM (340 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 280 KM/HR (150 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 929 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,205 KM (650 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 39 FEET (11.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI OCTOBER 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.
#02 - CAGAYAN AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - ISABELA, KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, AND
      NORTHERN AURORA.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 21.4N 124.3E / 230-280 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 22.7N 123.0E / 220-270 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 25.1N 120.8E / 175-215 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.2N 125.7E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 17W HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY,
ALTHOUGH THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED FROM 30 TO 35 NM OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TY 17W HAS BEEN STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE PERI-
PHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA THAT
APPEARS TO HAVE LINKED UP WITH THE STORM'S PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE. THE
TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 08 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS
...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane
   Name contributed by: Cambodia.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 20.3N 125.4E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY KROSA (INENG)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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