Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MITAG (MINA) threatens Bicol Region, Quezon & Aurora...[Update #002]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM MITAG [MINA/24W/0723]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 21 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 22 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 005
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) NOW REACHES 85-

KILOMETERS PER HOUR WINDS AS IT TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS...NEW FORECAST SHOWS BICOL REGION MAY BE SPARED. THREAT TO

EASTERN PHILIPPINES (BICOL UP TO AURORA) CONTINUES. BAD WEATHER OVER

THE MENTIONED AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TOMORROW OR EARLY FRIDAY

MORNING.

**Communities along the Eastern Provinces of Central Philippines from
Quezon, Bicol down to Samar must be aware on the approach of this

potential Typhoon and take advance precautionary measures.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to continue intensifying

and shall resume tracking Westward for the next 2 days. The storm shall

reach Typhoon strength early Friday morning and may start heading to-

wards the WNW Friday evening - passing some 110 km. NE of the northern

coast of Catanduanes, early Saturday morning. The 3 to 5-day Forecast

shows MITAG slowing down further and intensifying into a 150-km/hr

Typhoon (Cat 1) Saturday afternoon with a distance of 185 km. NE of

Naga City or 150 km. NE of Caramoan Coastline. The core of MITAG is

forecast to reach the Eastern Coast of Aurora around Sunday afternoon

and shall make landfall between Baler and Casiguran Sunday evening

(Nov 25), and shall traverse Central & Northern Luzon until Monday

morning (Nov 26). By Monday afternoon, the storm shall be off the

coast of La Union. Landfall Impact Forecast (LIF) of this system now
shows MITAG hitting Aurora Province and then crossing Central &
Northern Luzon beginning Sunday evening (Nov 25) until Monday
afternoon (Nov 26).

+ EFFECTS: MITAG is not yet affecting any land mass as of this time

as it remains over water. Its circulation continues to consolidate
and improve.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Tropical Storms HAGIBIS (LANDO) & MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring

cloudy skies with intermittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30

km/hr or higher across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including

Metro Manila. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or

surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of Eastern Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.3º N...LONGITUDE 131.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 800 KM (432 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 875 KM (473 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 900 KM (485 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 920 KM (497 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 1,140 KM (615 NM) ESE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: POLILLO ISLAND-AURORA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME WED NOVEMBER 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER: 14.5N 130.0E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER: 14.2N 128.3E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 14.7N 125.5E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.2N 132.3E.
^...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (08 GMT) 21 NOVEMBER: 14.3N 132.5E / W @ 19 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MITAG (MINA)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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