Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 04 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 04 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (KABAYAN) SLOWS DOWN WHILE HEADING ON A DAN-

GEROUS WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON...MAY BECOME A TYPHOON

BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CASIGURAN TONIGHT.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to continue moving WSW within

12 hours and turn Westward, becoming a 130-km/hr, miminal Typhoon

(Category 1) prior to landfall over Southern Isabela-Northern Aurora

area tonight. The 24 hour Forecast shows the system traversing Nor-

thern Luzon late tonight until tomorrow morning - passing over the

provinces of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Benguet and exit thru La

Union. It shall abruptly weaken into a Tropical Storm as it interacts

with the mountainous terrain of Luzon (Sierra Madre and Cordillera

Mountains). PEIPAH shall move out into the South China Sea tomorrow

noontime and resume its WSW to SW'ly track across the South China Sea.

The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows PEIPAH re-strengthening into

a Typhoon as it approaches the Southern Coast of Vietnam sometime

Friday morning, Nov 9.

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's circulation has been expanding over the past 12

hours, with its inner rainbands now spreading across Cagayan, Isabela,

Aurora and Nueva Vizcaya. Strong winds in excess of 60 km/hr with in-

termittent heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands. The outer

rainbands on the other hand is now spreading across the Central portions

of Northern Luzon. Rains and winds of up to 60 km/hr can be expected

along these bands. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 2 feet above

normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can

be expected near and to the north of PEIPAH's projected path particu-

larly on where the center makes landfall in Aurora-Isabela area. Minimal

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge

is also possible along coastal areas of Eastern Luzon.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by TS PEIPAH

(KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent rains &

strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across the Batanes and Babuyan

Group of Islands. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely

to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or surges

generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas

of Extreme Northern Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is

under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered

rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.8º N...LONGITUDE 124.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (127 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 280 KM (150 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 385 KM (207 NM) ENE OF BAGUIO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 370 KM (200 NM) NNE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 410 KM (222 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AURORA-ISABELA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 22 FEET (6.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME SUN NOVEMBER 04
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CAGAYAN, ISABELA, QUIRINO & AURORA.
#01 - BENGUET, KALINGA, APAYAO, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE,
      ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, LA UNION, PANGA-
      SINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, QUEZON &
      POLILLO ISLAND.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER: 16.6N 122.6E / 130-160 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 16.7N 120.7E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 16.3N 117.7E / 110-140 KPH / WSW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER POSITION: 16.9N 124.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (PEIPAH) HAS CONSOLIDATED RAPID-
LY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, EXHIBITING EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF AND RAPID LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH RE-
CENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AN EYE-FEATURE HAS NOT YET
APPEARED...(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau.
Name contributed by: Macau.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER: 17.0N 124.5E / WSW @ 19 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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