Monday, November 05, 2007

TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN) - Update #005


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005
Name: TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH [KABAYAN/21W/0721] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 05 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 06 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
PEIPAH (KABAYAN) DOWNGRADED INTO A TROPICAL STORM
...HAS SLOWED DOWN
RAPIDLY WHILE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...TURNING WESTWARD.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: PEIPAH is expected to track Westward for the next
24 hours and re-intensify. The 2 to 5-day forecast shows PEIPAH becoming
a minimal Typhoon once again tomorrow afternoon, Nov 6 and shall move on
a SW'ly direction across the South China Sea. The system shall be approa-
ching the Eastern Coast of Southern Vietnam Friday morning, Nov 9 as a
downgraded Tropical Storm and make landfall just North of Nha Trang,
Vietnam Friday afternoon and start dissipating overland

+ EFFECTS: PEIPAH's circulation has been disrupted by the terrain of
Luzon, with its eastern inner/outer rainbands dissipating overland. Its
western inner/outer rainbands remains strong over the South China Sea,
which is wrapping into the low-level center. Scattered rains with moderate
to strong winds of not more than 60 km/hr will still prevail along the
Western portions of Northern and Central Luzon. Coastal Storm Surge flooding
of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous
battering waves can be expected near and to the north of PEIPAH's projected
path Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched
storm surge is also possible along coastal areas of Western Luzon.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/1004 MB) over
the Philippine Sea, NW of the Island of Palau remains weak. The system was
located about 605 km. East of Surigao City (9.9N 131.0E). With winds of 30
km/hr..it was moving WNW slowly. This disturbance will be closely monitored
for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within a day or two.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITYNortheast (NE)
 Monsoon enhanced by TS PEIPAH
(KABAYAN) will continue to bring cloudy skies with intermittent rains &
strong NE'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher across Taiwan and the Coastal
areas of Southern and Eastern China. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and
flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river
banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big
sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal
and beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest
of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which
will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in the
afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.7º N...LONGITUDE 118.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 160 KM (85
NM) WEST OF VIGAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 190 KM (105 NM) WSW OF LAOAG CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 230 KM (125 NM) NW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 240 KM (130 NM) NNW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 710 KM (385 NM) SE OF HONG KONG, CHINA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 06 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME MON NOVEMBER 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR & ABRA.
#01 - PANGASINAN, LA UNION, BENGUET, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, APAYAO,
      WESTERN CAGAYAN & THE BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 17.8N 118.1E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 NOVEMBER: 17.7N 117.0E / 120-150 KPH / WSW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 NOVEMBER: 16.4N 114.8E / 120-150 KPH / SW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER POSITION: 17.7N 119.2E.
^.
..(more)

>> PEIPAH {pronounced: pey~pah}, meaning: A popular pet fish in Macau
   Name contributed by: Macau.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 05 NOVEMBER: 18.1N 119.0E / WNW @ 15 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS PEIPAH (KABAYAN)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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