Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MITAG (MINA) drifting West...[Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TYPHOON MITAG [MINA/24W/0723]

Issued: 1:00 AM MANILA TIME (17:00 GMT) SAT 24 NOVEMBER 2007
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 014
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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AFTER REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS, TYPHOON MITAG
{pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) PERFORMED A NORTHWARD-JOG AND HAS

STARTED DRIFTING WESTWARD CLOSER TO NORTHERN BICOL...MAY INTENSIFY

ONCE AGAIN...LIKELY TO BRING UNUSUAL RAINFALL WITH HIGH WINDS ACROSS

THE BICOL REGION THIS WEEKEND.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to accelerate WNW for the

next 24 hours and intensify. The typhoon's EYE shall pass about 75 km.

NE of Pandan, Northern Catanduanes or 115 km. NNE of Virac, Southern

Catanduanes around 10PM tomorrow. It shall continue moving WNW and may

move close to the north of Camarines Sur passing some 100 km. NE of

Partido District or about 150 km. NE of Naga City & 160 km. NNE of

Iriga City around 6AM Sunday - with forecast peak winds of 205 km/hr

(Category 3). Its closest approach to Camarines Norte shall be about

120 km. to the NE of Daet around 8AM Sunday. The 2 to 3-day Forecast

shows MITAG accelerating further by Sunday afternoon and shall make

landfall north of Baler, Aurora Sunday night (Nov 26) and cross Nor-

thern Luzon. MITAG shall be over Benguet Province passing north of

Baguio City around 8 AM Monday (Nov 26) and shall be off the coast

of Ilocos Sur around 2 PM Monday (Nov 26). Landfall Impact Forecast

(LIF) of this system now shows MITAG hitting Northern Quezon Sunday

afternoon & cross Central Luzon through Sunday evening until Monday

evening (Nov 26).

+ EFFECTS: MITAG's Inner rainbands spreading east of Bicol, affecting

Catanduanes Island and along the coastal areas of Camarines Sur-Albay-

Sorsogon. Strong winds of 60 to 80 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can

be expected within these inner bands. Meanwhile, the outer rainbands

continues to spread across the whole Bicol Region, Southern Tagalog

and Samar Provinces and across Northern Visayas. Cloudy Skies with

passing moderate to heavy rains and winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can

be expected along the outer bands. People living around the slopes of

Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially

along the areas where possible LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud

and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains

associated by this approaching typhoon are likely to be felt begi-

nning late today until Monday morning. Coastal Storm Surge flooding

of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dan-

gerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of

MITAG's projected path particularly over Bicol Region and, on where

the center makes landfall in Aurora-Northern Quezon area. Extensive

damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm

surge is also possible along coastal areas of Cagayan, Samar down

to Surigao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoons HAGIBIS (LANDO) & MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring

cloudy skies with intermittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30

km/hr or higher across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including

Metro Manila. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or

surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of Eastern Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 13.9º N...LONGITUDE 126.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 250 KM (135 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 315 KM (170 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 340 KM (183 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 360 KM (195 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 390 KM (210 NM) ESE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

DISTANCE 6: 585 KM (315 NM) ESE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 952 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN BICOL-AURORA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME FRI NOVEMBER 23
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - CATANDUANES, SORSOGON, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., CAMARINES SUR &
CAMARINES NORTE.

#02 - MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN QUEZON, MASBATE, ROMBLON, POLILLO IS-
LAND & NORTHERN SAMAR.
#01 - BATANGAS, LAGUNA, REST OF QUEZON, AURORA, RIZAL, MINDORO,

ISABELA, QUIRINO, WESTERN & EASTERN SAMAR, BILIRAN, CALA-

MIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, SAMAR, BILIRAN IS., AKLAN, CAPIZ,

& NORTHERN LEYTE.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 14.0N 126.3E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 14.3N 125.1E / 195-240 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 15.8N 122.1E / 185-230 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER POSITION: 13.9N 126.6E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 24W (MITAG) HAS ENTERED A WEAK STEERING ENVIR-
ONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THEREFORE, STORM
MOTION HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 PM (14 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 13.9N 126.5E / W @ 11 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Imagery, USA (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red bold letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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