Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MITAG (MINA) moving NW slowly...[Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TYPHOON MITAG [MINA/24W/0723]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 24 NOVEMBER 2007
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 015
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST

SLOWLY TOWARDS LUZON.

Flash Flood Warning: The Southern Inner Bands of Typhoon MITAG is slowly approaching the Bicol

Region and is expected to bring Moderate to Heavy Rains of up to 200 millimeters w/ winds of up to

85 km/hr this afternoon until tonight. Widespread flooding due to overflowing of river systems, and l

andslides along steep-sloped terrains can be expected across the Bicol Region. Residents in low-

lying areas areas are advise to evacuate and seek higher grounds and must take all necessary

precautions.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) MITAG (MINA) is expected to accele-

rate WNW for the next 24 hours and intensify. The typhoon's EYE shall

pass about 150 km. NNE of Pandan, Northern Catanduanes or 180 km. NNE

of Virac, Southern Catanduanes around 6PM tonight. It shall continue

moving WNW and may move to the north of Camarines Sur passing some 180

km. NE of Partido District or about 230 km. NE of Naga City & 240 km.

NE of Iriga City around 8PM tonight - with forecast peak winds of 200

km/hr (Category 3). Its closest approach to Camarines Norte shall be

about 190 km. to the NE of Daet around 2AM tomorrow. The 2 to 3-day

Forecast shows MITAG accelerating further by Sunday morning and shall

make landfall north of Casiguran, Aurora tomorrow afternoon approx

1PM local time and cross Northern Luzon. MITAG shall be in between

Vigan and Laoag around 2AM on Tuesday Nov 27. Landfall Impact Forecast

(LIF) of this system now shows MITAG hitting Aurora Province Sunday

afternoon and cross Northern Luzon until Tuesday early morning

(Nov 26-27).

+ EFFECTS: MITAG's Inner rainbands spreading across the Bicol

Region. Strong winds of 60 to 80 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains

can be expected within these areas today. Meanwhile, the outer

rainbands continues to spread across the whole Bicol Region, Sou-

thern Tagalog and Samar Provinces and across Northern Visayas.

Cloudy Skies with passing moderate to heavy rains and winds not

exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected along the outer bands. People

living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan

Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible

LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must

stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this approa-

ching typhoon are likely to be felt beginning today until Sunday

morning. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal

tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can

be expected near and to the north of MITAG's projected path parti-

cularly over Bicol Region and, on where the center makes landfall

in Aurora-Northern Quezon area. Extensive damage is possible on

this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible

along coastal areas of Cagayan, Samar down to Surigao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoons HAGIBIS (LANDO) & MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring

cloudy skies with intermittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30

km/hr or higher across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including

Metro Manila. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or

surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of Eastern Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 14.4º N...LONGITUDE 126.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 215 KM (115 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 285 KM (155 NM) NE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 300 KM (162 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 315 KM (170 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 335 KM (180 NM) EAST OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

DISTANCE 6: 540 KM (290 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 952 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AURORA-ISABELA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 30 FEET (9.1 METERS)
VIEW JTWC TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT NOVEMBER 24
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE & POLILLO ISLAND.

#02 - CAMARINES SUR, SORSOGON, ALBAY, BURIAS, QUEZON, QUIRINO,
AURORA, ISABELA, & NORTHERN SAMAR.
#01 - MASBATE, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, BATANGAS,
LAGUNA, RIZAL, BULACAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, KALINGA,

MT. PROVINCE, CAGAYAN, WESTERN & EASTERN SAMAR, BILIRAN,

& NORTHERN LEYTE.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 14.9N 125.3E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 15.6N 123.8E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 17.9N 120.5E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.2N 126.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 24W (MITAG) HAS ENTERED A WEAK STEERING ENVIR-
ONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AND
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THEREFORE, STORM
MOTION HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 14.4N 126.3E / NW @ 11 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml

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RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Imagery, USA (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red bold letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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