Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MITAG (MINA) still heading towards Bicol Region...[Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TYPHOON MITAG [MINA/24W/0723]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 22 NOVEMBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 22 NOVEMBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 007
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

MITAG {pronounced as: me~tok} (MINA) BECOMES THE 15TH TYPHOON OF
2007...STILL ON A STEADY WESTERLY TRACK CLOSER TO BICOL REGION...
STORM SIGNAL NUMBER TWO NOW RAISED OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND.

**Communities along the Eastern Provinces of Central Philippines from
Quezon, Bicol down to Samar must be aware on the approach of this

potential Typhoon and take advance precautionary measures.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MITAG (MINA) is expected to continue heading West-

ward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The typhoon may start

turning towards the WNW Friday evening and shall pass about 95 km. NNE

of Pandan, Northern Catanduanes or 150 km. NNE of Virac, Southern Catan-

duanes by noontime Saturday Nov 24. Its EYE is expected to pass about

135 km. NNE of the Caramoan Coastline between 5 PM til 11 PM local time

Saturday. The 3 to 5-day Forecast shows MITAG slowing down further and

intensifying into a 200-km/hr Typhoon (Category 3) early Sunday morning

with a distance of 180 km. NNE of Naga City or 135 km. NE of Sañgay,

Camarines Sur at around 2 AM Sunday. The core of MITAG is forecast to

reach the Coasts of Aurora & Northern Quezon around Sunday evening and

shall make landfall just north of Baler around 2 AM Monday and traverse

Central & Northern Luzon throughout Monday (Nov 26). By Tuesday early

morning, the system shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm and shall
be over the Coast of Pangasinan-La Union Area. Landfall Impact Forecast
(LIF) of this system now shows MITAG hitting Aurora Province early
Monday morning, crossing Central & Northern Luzon throughout Monday
(Nov 26).

+ EFFECTS: MITAG's outer rainbands is now approaching the coastal areas

of Catanduanes and Bicol Region. Cloudy Skies with passing rains and

winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be expected along the outer bands. The

typhoon's Inner Rainbands expected to reach Bicol sometime tomorrow,

Friday. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of

Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible

LAHAR FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay

alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this approaching typhoon

are likely to be felt beginning late today until Monday morning. Coastal

Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along

with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to

the north of MITAG's projected path particularly over Bicol Region and,

on where the center makes landfall in Aurora-Northern Quezon area.

Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched

storm surge is also possible along coastal areas of Cagayan, Samar

down to Surigao.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon enhanced by
Typhoons HAGIBIS (LANDO) & MITAG (MINA) will continue to bring

cloudy skies with intermittent rainshowers & strong NE'ly winds of 30

km/hr or higher across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including

Metro Manila. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to

occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas, while big sea waves or

surges generated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-

front areas of Eastern Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 14.4º N...LONGITUDE 130.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 655 KM (355 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 725 KM (390 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 750 KM (405 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 770 KM (415 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 990 KM (535 NM) EAST OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 975 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: AURORA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 650 KM (350 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 19 FEET (5.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME THU NOVEMBER 22
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CATANDUANES.
#01 - SORSOGON, ALBAY, CAMARINES PROVINCES, SOUTHERN QUEZON
INCLUDING POLILLO ISLAND.

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER: 14.4N 129.0E / 130-160 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 14.3N 127.3E / 150-185 KPH / W @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 14.7N 125.2E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.4N 130.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 24W (MITAG) WAS UPGRADED ON THE 21/18Z WARNING
BASED ON IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIM-
ATES RANGING FROM OF 65 KNOTS TO 77 KNOTS. A 212026Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH...(more)
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 22 NOVEMBER: 14.4N 130.5E / W @ 15 KPH / 115 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate_mina.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TYPHOON MITAG (MINA)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm