Saturday, April 19, 2008

Typhoon NEOGURI (AMBO) to make landfall over Western Guangdong this PM... [Update #007]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
Name: TYPHOON NEOGURI [AMBO/02W/0801] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 19 APRIL 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 020
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON NEOGURI (AMBO) WEAKENS TO CATEGORY ONE AS IT APPROACHES THE
SHORELINE OF WESTERN GUANGDONG...THREATENS HONG KONG AND MACAU.
HONG KONG UNDER STRONG WIND SIGNAL NUMBER THREE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NEOGURI is expected to continue moving NE'ly,
weakening further into a storm and make landfall over Western Guang-
dong or about 100 km. West of Macau this afternoon (approx 3-4 PM HK
time). The dissipating core (eye & eyewall) of this system shall make
its closest point approach (CPA) to Hong Kong at around 11 PM to 12
midnight tonight with a distance of 115 km. to the NE. NEOGURI is
forecast to disspate just NE of Hong Kong by tomorrow afternoon,
April 20th. 

+ EFFECTS: NEOGURI's shrinking circulation is now in between the
coasts of Hainan and Western Guangdong. The inner bands of this
typhoon has left eastern Hainan and is now spreading across Western
Guangdong, with its disorganized Northern Eyewall just along the
shores of Western Guangdong. Moderate to heavy rains accompanied with
tropical storm force winds reaching 100 km/hr can be expected along
Western Guangdong, Macau & Hong Kong this morning, increasing to mi-
nimal Typhoon force winds in the afternoon through the evening. Mean-
while, Its outer bands continues to spread across much of Southern
China. These bands will continue to bring widespread rains & thun-
derstorms with light to moderate winds across the area today. Dete-
riorating weather conditions can be expected tonight until tomorrow
as the typhoon makes landfall over Western Guangdong. People living
in low-lying areas of Southern China particularly Western Guangdong,
Macau & Hong Kong must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due
to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this storm. Precau-
tionary measures must be fully implemented. Coastal Storm Surge floo-
ding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of
NEOGURI's projected path particularly on where the center makes
landfall in Western Guangdong. Minimal damage is possible on this
type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is also possible along
coastal areas of Hainan & Southern China.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 19 APRIL
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.4º N...LONGITUDE 111.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 275 KM (148
NM) SW OF MACAU, CHINA 
DISTANCE 2: 325 KM (175 NM) SW OF HONG KONG, CHINA 
DISTANCE 3: 170 KM (92 NM) SE OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA  
DISTANCE 4: 160 KM (85 NM) ENE OF HAIKOU, HAINAN IS. 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN GUANGDONG
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SAT APRIL 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 APRIL: 21.6N 112.5E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 APRIL: 23.1N 113.4E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TY NEOGURI (AMBO)...go visit
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>
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