Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon NAKRI (06W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON NAKRI [06W/0805]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 29 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 010
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON NAKRI (06W) RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH...

SHALL ENTER THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) TOMORROW MORNING.

*The Dvorak Satellite Technique Analysis on NAKRI corresponds to a T-Number of 6.0
which results to a 1-min. wind speed average of 220 km/hr (120 knots) - making it a
Category 4 system.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NAKRI is expected to change its course towards the NW
within the next 12 hours, & shall then enter PAR shortly tomorrow morning.

The 2 to 5-day long range forecast shows NAKRI turning Northward before

recurving NNE to NE on Saturday, May 31..transitioning into an Extratro-

ical Cyclone as it passes close to the north of Chichi Jima Island by

early Tuesday morning, June 2.

+ EFFECTS: NAKRI's compact and intense eyewall with its radial, spiral

cloud bands remains at sea and is not affecting any small or large

landmass at this time.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH: ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting NCR,

Luzon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao - will continue to bring scattered

rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 29 MAY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 135.7º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 75 KM (40 NM) EAST OF PAR

DISTANCE 2: 1,120 KM (605 NM) SSW OF IWO TO

DISTANCE 3: 1,250 KM (675 NM) ENE OF BICOL REGION, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,395 KM (755 NM) SE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

DISTANCE 5: 1,450 KM (783 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 220 KM/HR (120 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 270 KM/HR (145 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 933 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 29 FEET (8.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME THU MAY 29
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 MAY: 16.9N 135.3E / 230-280 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 30 MAY: 17.9N 134.8E / 230-280 KPH / N @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 31 MAY: 20.7N 135.0E / 205-250 KPH / NNE @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 JUNE: 24.4N 137.3E / 160-195 KPH / NE @ 37 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 29 MAY POSITION: 16.2N 135.8E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. A SMALL AND IRREGULAR
EYE HAD DEVELOPED AS WELL, COINCIDING WITH A MODERATE INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED
THE PRIMARY EXHAUST CHANNEL...(more)

>> NAKRI {pronounced: na~kree}, meaning: A kind of flower.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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