Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD COSME (95W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME [95W]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 14 MAY 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER 001
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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THE BROAD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) WEST OF MINDORO HAS STRENGTHENED

INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCALLY KNOWN AS COSME (95W)...BARELY

MOVING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: This system which developed from the western periphery

of a strong ITCZ (Monsoon Trough) is expected to drift Northward within

the next 3 days. Majority of the Global Forecast Models continues to show

the storm heading Northward to NNE, passing across Balintang Channel or

just north of Laoag City this weekend.

+ EFFECTS: COSME's elongated rain bands continues to affect the islands of

Palawan & Mindoro, bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains along with

winds not exceeding 55 km/hr tonight. People living in low-lying areas must

seek higher grounds for possible flooding due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be fully

implemented.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The other Tropical Disturbance east of Aurora is

now Tropical Depression 04W (NONAME)...kindly check out email storm updates

on this other system.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon

which is locally induced by COSME & 04W is now affecting Western Visayas,

Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila and Bicol Region. The

monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains,

thunderstorms & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr tonight and tomorrow.

Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep

mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon

can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the abovementioned areas.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon

Trough), which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially

in the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 4:00 PM MANILA TIME (08:00 GMT) 14 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.4º N...LONGITUDE 117.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 400 KM (215 NM) WSW OF CALAPAN, ORIENTAL MINDORO, PH

DISTANCE 2: 455 KM (245 NM) SW OF MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME WED MAY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: N/A
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 MAY: 13.8N 117.4E
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 MAY: 15.4N 117.7E
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY: 16.8N 118.5E

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RECENT PAGASA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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