Thursday, May 15, 2008

TD COSME (95W) - Update #002


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME [95W] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 15 MAY 2008
Source: JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY (JMA) TC WARNING [15/2100 GMT]
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME (95W) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PALAWAN ISLAND
...STILL
BARELY MOVING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: COSME is expected to drift NE to NNE within the
next 2-3 days and intensify. Majority of the Global Forecast Models
continues to show the storm heading NNE to NE, passing across NW
Luzon near the City of Laoag this weekend. Stay tuned for more
updates on COSME's forecast track. 

+ EFFECTS: COSME's elongated rain bands continues to affect the Wes-
tern Coast of Palawan, bringing moderate to sometimes heavy rains
along with winds not exceeding 55 km/hr tonight. People living in
low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding due
to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Pre-
cautionary measures must be fully implemented.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which is locally induced by COSME & 04W continues to affect Palawan,
Mindoro & Western Visayas including Boracay Island Resort. The
monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with moderate to heavy
rains, thunderstorms & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today.
Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along
steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges ge-
nerated by this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas
of the abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines
is under the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered
rains and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 15 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.8º N...LONGITUDE 116.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 370 KM (200
NM) WSW OF CORON, PALAWAN, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 485 KM (262 NM) WSW OF PUERTO GALERA, PH 
DISTANCE 3: 545 KM (295 NM) SW OF MANILA, PH 
DISTANCE 4: 555 KM (300 NM) WEST OF BORACAY, PH 
MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NNE @ 00 KM/HR (00 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME THU MAY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESN/A  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

24 HR. FORECAST:
5 AM (21 GMT) 16 MAY: 13.6N 118.0E / 65-95 KPH / NNE @ 05 KPH
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 MAY: 12.8N 117.5E / N @ 07 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD COSME (95W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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