Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NAKRI

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM NAKRI [06W/0805]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 28 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (06W) GAINED MORE STRENGTH AS IT REMAINED ALMOST

STATIONARY OUTSIDE AND NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE PHILIPPINE

AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...NOT A THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NAKRI is expected to drift NW to NNW across the

Western Pacific, closer to PAR and may become a Typhoon early tomorrow

morning (May 29). It shall then reach its peak strength of 160 km/hr

(Category 2) by early Saturday morning (May 30) and start recurving in

the direction of Chichi Jima-Iwo To Area. The 4 to 5-day long range

forecast shows NAKRI becoming Extratropical as it passes north of

Chichi Jima early Monday morning, June 2.

+ EFFECTS: NAKRI's compact and improving spiral-cloud bands remains at

sea...not affecting any small or large islands at the moment.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1010)
remains weak, as it drifts westward towards the coast of Aurora...loca-

ted about 240 km. NE of Casiguran, Aurora (17.0N 124.2E)...packing winds

of 30 km/hr, this disturbance will be observed closely for possible deve-

lopment into a Tropical Cyclone in the coming hours or days. Click here

to view the near real-time satellite photo (courtesy of NOAA/MTSAT-1R).

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is locally
induced by a Tropical Disturbance (92W/LPA) off the coast of Aurora - is

currently bringing scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms across

portions of Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, Bicol Region

and Northern Visayas today. Elsewhere, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting

Rest of Luzon, Rest of Visayas and Mindanao - will continue to bring sca-

ttered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or

evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 28 MAY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.7º N...LONGITUDE 137.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 270 KM (145 NM) EAST OF PAR

DISTANCE 2: 540 KM (290 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP

DISTANCE 3: 1,235 KM (667 NM) SSW OF IWO TO (FORMERLY IWO JIMA)

DISTANCE 4: 1,415 KM (765 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH

DISTANCE 5: 1,665 KM (900 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 04 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 445 KM (240 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME WED MAY 28
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 MAY: 15.1N 137.3E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 MAY: 15.8N 136.8E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 30 MAY: 17.2N 135.5E / 150-185 KPH / N @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 MAY: 19.3N 135.1E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 MAY POSITION: 14.5N 137.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NAKRI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FORWARD
TRACK SPEED HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 06 TO 12
HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED AND A 6:32 PM MAY 27 SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE...(more)

>> NAKRI {pronounced: na~kree}, meaning: A kind of flower.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS NAKRI (06W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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