Saturday, May 17, 2008

Typhoon HALONG (COSME) lashes Northern Pangasinan... [Update #008]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
Name: TYPHOON HALONG [COSME/05W/0804] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 17 MAY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
HALONG (COSME) BECOMES THE 3RD TYPHOON OF 2008...CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND IS NOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN PANGASINAN OR IN THE
VICINITY OF RENA POINT...EYE EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF PANGASINAN, PASSING JUST NORTH OF LINGAYEN GULF IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4:30 PM DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWED
1-MIN. AVERAGE WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 140-150 KM/HR (T4.5)
. 

>> HALONG (COSME) could become the worst typhoon ever to hit the area since Typhoon
VICKI (GADING) of September 18-19, 1998
. Click here to view
image and track
for its
similarities.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOKHALONG's 30-km. Cloud-filled EYE is expected make
landfall over La Union-Ilocos Sur border around 10 PM tonight. It shall
then cross Northern Luzon late tonight until tomorrow, passing over the
provinces of Abra, Kalinga, Apayao and Northern Cagayan. HALONG shall
exit Luzon, via Northern Cagayan tomorrow morning around 8 AM. The 2 to
5-day long range forecast shows the storm passing close to the South of
Okinawa, Japan by Monday afternoon. By Tuesday morning, HALONG shall
become Extratropical prior in making its second landfall over Honshu,
Japan on Tuesday afternoon, May 20th 

+ EFFECTS: HALONG's strong circulation is now moving across the Northern
tip of Pangasinan. Its core and inner rain bands now spreading across
the whole of Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet & Tarlac - bringing
moderate to heavy rains w/ typhoon-force winds exceeding 100 km/hr tonight.
Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected late tonight along the
Provinces of Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet & Ilocos Sur as HALONG makes
landfall. Its outer rain bands, on the other hand, continues to spread
across the whole of Northern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila. These
bands will continue to bring moderate to sometimes heavy rains & strong
winds not exceeding 60 km/hr tonight. People living in low-lying areas
must seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the
anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary mea-
sures must be fully implemented at this time. Coastal Storm Surge floo-
ding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of
HALONG's projected path particularly on where the center makes land-
fall in Northern Pangasinan-La Union-Ilocos Area. Minimal damage is
possible on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is
possible along coastal areas of Western Philippines with surf
reaching 2-3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Intensified Southwest (SW) Monsoon which
is locally induced by HALONG continues to affect Palawan, Western
Visayas including Boracay Island Resort & Southern Tagalog Provinces.
The monsoon-affected areas will have cloudy skies with light to mo-
derate rains & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today. Landslides,
mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep moun-
tain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of
the affected areas. Meanwhile, big sea waves or surges generated by
this monsoon can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of the
abovementioned areas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under
the active ITCZ (Monsoon Trough), which will bring scattered rains
and thunderstorms most especially in the afternoon or evening.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT)
:

+ Northern Zambales-Pangasinan: Ongoing until 10PM tonight.
+ La Union-Benguet-Ilocos Sur: 7PM tonight until 3AM tomorrow.
+ Abra-Kalinga-Apayao: 1AM until 7AM tomorrow.


Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
new warning synopsis is issued.
Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
or death decisions.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 17 MAY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.1º N...LONGITUDE 119.6º E {SAT FIX}
DISTANCE 1: 75 KM (40
NM) WEST OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 95 KM (50 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH 
DISTANCE 3: 100 KM (55 NM) NNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH 
DISTANCE 4: 110 KM (60 NM) WSW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 185 KM (100 NM) SSW OF VIGAN CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 6: 235 KM (127 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 965 MILLIBARS (hPa)
FORECAST MOVEMENT: NE @ 09 KPH (05 KTS) 
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SAT MAY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 96 HOURS LEAD
  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, LA UNION, BENGUET & ILOCOS SUR.
#02 -
 BATAAN, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO
      IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE, KALINGA, ABRA, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE.

#01 - METRO MANILA, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, 
      NORTHERN QUEZON, ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN IS., BABUYAN & 
      BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.


12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 MAY: 17.7N 120.9E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 MAY: 19.4N 122.7E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 MAY: 24.6N 128.2E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 59 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 MAY: 34.5N 137.4E / 85-100 KPH / NNE @ 65 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 17 MAY POSITION: 15.9N 119.3E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG) HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. RECENT MICROWAVE SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 6:15 AM MAY 17 WINDSAT IMAGE, SHOW THE
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL BANDING EYE FEATURE
...(more)

>> HALONG {pronounced: ha~long}, meaning: A famous picturesque place 
   in Viet Nam which was claimed heritage by UNESCO, lies in the Bacbo 
   Gulf and consists of more than 1,000 isles, most of them are lime-
   stone islands
Name contributed by: Vietnam.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 17 MAY: 16.0N 119.7E / NE @ 19 KPH / 105 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TYPHOON HALONG (COSME/05W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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