Tuesday, July 15, 2008

TD 08W (HELEN) - Update #002


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W [HELEN] 
Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) TUE 15 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (HELEN) STILL CONSOLIDATING AS IT HEADS TOWARDS
CAGAYAN...ENHANCED SOUTHWEST (SW) MONSOON BRINGING RAINS AND WINDS ACROSS
METRO MANILA, LUZON INCLUDING SOUTHERN QUEZON & WESTERN BICOL REGION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 08W is expected to turn Westward and become a Tropical
Storm within the next 24 hours. It shall pass along the Northern Tip of
Cagayan early tomorrow morning (approx 1 AM), then shall track WNW to NW
across Balintang Channel, passing West of Batanes Group Thursday morning,
July 17. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system accelerating
NNW to Northward, making landfall along the SE coast of China Friday mor-
ning, Jul 18 w/ forecast peak wind speeds of 100 km/hr. 08W shall move
across mainland China thru Saturday & Sunday (Jul 19-20) as a downgraded
and dissipating system 

+ EFFECTS: 08W's western outer rain bands continues to spread across Nor-
hern Luzon particularly along Cagayan, Isabela, Babuyan & Calayan Group
of Islands. Rains and winds not exceeding 55 km/hr can be expected along
these bands. Moderate to rough seas to prevail along the coastal areas
of the affected areas. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher
grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated
heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures
must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITYSouthwest (SW) Monsoon currently enhanced
by TD 08W (HELEN) continues to affect Metro Manila, Luzon, Mindoro,
Southern Quezon including Bicol Region. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies
with possible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour
& SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mud-
flows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/
volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the
affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 15 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 123.7º
DISTANCE 1: 210 KM (113
NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 310 KM (167 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH 
DISTANCE 3: 220 KM (120 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 605 KM (325 NM) SSE OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME TUE JULY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - CAGAYAN, CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS & ISABELA.
#01 -
BATANES, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, APAYAO, KALINGA, MT. 
      PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO AND AURORA
.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 15 JULY: 18.3N 123.0E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 16 JULY: 18.6N 121.8E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 JULY: 20.8N 119.5E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JUNE: 24.1N 118.2E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 15 JULY POSITION: 18.3N 124.0E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TD 08W HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 142045Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUES TO FORECAST
THE SYSTEM TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD (PERPENDICULAR TO THE
STEERING RIDGE) DESPITE THE OBSERVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK
...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
 
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 15 JULY: 18.4N 124.0E / WEST @ 05 KPH / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD 08W (HELEN)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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