Wednesday, August 06, 2008

TS KAMMURI (JULIAN) bears down the coast of Southern China...[Update #006]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI [JULIAN/10W/0809] 
Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) WED 06 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI (JULIAN) NOW TOPPING WINDS OF ALMOST 100 KM/HR...
BEARS DOWN THE COAST OF WESTERN GUANGDONG...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
NOW AFFECTING THE AREA INCLUDING HONG KONG AND MACAU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KAMMURI is expected to continue heading WNW for the
next 12 to 24 hours and shall make landfall along Western Guangdong after
sundown with a distance of more or less 100 km. West of Hong Kong. Complete
dissipation of this cyclone is forecast tomorrow afternoon of Aug 7 while
moving WNW across the Chinese Province of Guangxi.  

+ EFFECTS: KAMMURI's strong circulation covering the northern portion of
the South China Sea, with its inner-spiral rain bands spreading across the
Southern Coastal areas of Western Guangdong including Hong Kong & Macau.
Widespread rains of up to 200-300 mm. and winds not in excess of 100 km/hr
can be expected along the affected areas. Western and SW outer rain bands
affecting the Gulf of Tonkin & Hainan Island with moderate to heavy rains
with winds not exceeding 60 km/hr. Residents in low-lying areas must seek
higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated
heavy rains brought about by this disturbance. Precautionary measures must
be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves can be expected near and to the north of KAMMURI's projected path
particularly when the system moves over Western Guangdong. Very minimal
damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to be
enhanced by TS KAMMURI (JULIAN. This wind system is currently bringing
cloudy skies with "on-&-off" to sometimes continuous moderate to heavy
rains & winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across the Rest of Luzon, becoming
more intense across Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic Bay.
Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along
steep mountain/volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affec-
ting the whole Philippines. It will continue to bring widespread
scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon
or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 06 AUGUST
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.3º N...LONGITUDE 113.6º E {SatFix} 
DISTANCE 1: 100 KM (55
NM) SOUTH OF MACAU, CHINA 
DISTANCE 2: 120 KM (65 NM) SW OF HONG KONG, CHINA 
DISTANCE 3: 320 KM (172 NM) EAST OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA
DISTANCE 4: 810 KM (438 NM) WNW OF LAOAG CITY, PH  
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: WESTERN GUANGDONG, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 06
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 36 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE.

12, 24, 36 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 22.0N 112.4E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.5N 110.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 22.7N 108.2E / 35-55 KPH / . @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 06 AUGUST POSITION: 21.3N 113.9E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (KAMMURI) HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED WHILE
TRACKING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
LAND INTERACTION WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE ALL LIMITED
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE A POLEWARD TUG AHEAD OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA HAS AIDED IN OFFSETTING AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND.
..
(more)

>> KAMMURI {pronounced: ka~moo~ree}, meaning: Corona Borealis; crown
   
Name contributed by: Japan.

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas 
      being hoisted.
For more explanations on these signals, 
      visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS KAMMURI (JULIAN/10W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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