Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NURI (KAREN) traversing the Northern Coast of Extreme Northern Luzon... [Update #008]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TYPHOON NURI [KAREN/13W/0812]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) WED 20 AUGUST 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 013
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON NURI (KAREN) NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EXTREME

NORTHERN LUZON...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES TO LASH

BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLANDS, NORTHERN CAGAYAN AND NORTHERN ILOCOS NORTE.

*This system continues to enhance the SW Monsoon Rains across Western & Southern
Luzon & Western Visayas including Metro Manila.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NURI is expected to continue moving WNW for the next

24 hours, with its eye and its eyewall passing across the Northern Coast

of Ilocos Norte this afternoon. It will move out into the South China Sea

later tonight. The 4-day medium-range forecast shows NURI gradually turning

NW across the South China Sea tomorrow, Aug 21 and shall make its final

landfall along the coast of Eastern Guangdong, more or less 150 km. East

of Hong Kong on Friday, Aug 22, around 11-12 PM w/ forecast winds of

almost 200 km/hr. NURI shall move inland across China and dissipate over

the area on Sunday, Aug 24.

+ EFFECTS: NURI's radial circulation and spiral bands continues to affect

the northern coast of Extreme Northern Luzon. Its Eyewall is currently

affecting Calayan-Babuyan Islands & the coast of Northern Cagayan - bri-

nging high winds and heavy rains of more or less 400 mm. The inner bands

of NURI is currently spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon - bringing

stormy weather of these areas. While its outer bands continues to cover

the whole of Northern & Central Luzon carrying winds and rains not excee-

ding 75 km/hr today. Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds

for possible flooding & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this disturbance. Precautionary measures must be initiated

if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above

normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be

expected near and to the north of NURI's projected path particularly when

the system moves over Extreme Northern Luzon. Moderate damage is possible

on this type of storm surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along

coastal areas of Eastern Luzon with surf reaching 3 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon

continues to be enhanced by TY NURI (KAREN) affecting Southern & SW Luzon

including Metro Manila, Subic Bay & Western Visayas. This wind system is

expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off" light to

moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 40 km/hr today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 20 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.9º N...LONGITUDE 121.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 45 KM (25 NM) SSW OF CALAYAN ISLAND, PH
DISTANCE 2: 65 KM (35 NM) NW OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 115 KM (62 NM) NE OF LAOAG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 190 KM (103 NM) SSW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 952 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BABUYAN-CALAYAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME WED AUGUST 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - CAGAYAN, APAYAO, CALAYAN, BATANES, BABUYAN, & ILOCOS NORTE.

#02 - ISABELA, LA UNION, BENGUET, NUEVA VIZCAYA, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA,
KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, & IFUGAO.
#01 - PANGASINAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA,
AND AURORA.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 19.4N 120.0E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 21 AUGUST: 20.2N 118.4E / 185-230 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 22 AUGUST: 22.4N 115.9E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 23 AUGUST: 24.0N 114.7E / 110-140 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 20 AUGUST POSITION: 18.7N 121.9E.
^TY 13W (NURI) HAS NEARLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERI-
PHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
A 20 NM EYE IS NOW EVIDENT IN MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CYCLONE AND BROAD SCALE
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO DRIVE STRONG EQUATORWARD AND
WESTWARD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
TO THE WEST OF TY 13W HAS ENHANCED POLEARD OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
MOVED OVER NORTHERN LUZON, BUT THE EYE OF THE STORM REMAINS OFFSHORE
...(more)

>> NURI {pronounced: nu~ree}, meaning: Blue crowned parroquet in the
Malay language. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. avg winds):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 20 AUGUST: 18.9N 121.6E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 140 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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