Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813]

Issued: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) WED 10 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #009
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) NOW A POWERFUL CATEGORY THREE SYSTEM WITH WINDS

OF 205 KPH...MOVING NORTH SLOWLY...AIMING FOR OKINAWA-RYUKYU ISLANDS.
SOUTHWEST MONSOON AFFECTING WESTERN PHILIPPINES INCLUDING METRO MANILA

AND SUBIC BAY.

*Residents along Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of
Kyushu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to continue on its slow-paced

northerly track until tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day long-range fore-

cast shows SINLAKU becoming a dangerous cyclone reaching Category 4 on

the Saffir-Simpson Scale w/ winds of 230 kph on Friday, Sep 12 as it

turns NNE slowly. The core of SINLAKU shall pass close to the north of

Okinawa Island on Saturday evening (Sep 13). The typhoon shall then

move more to the NE, reaching the southern coast of Kyushu, Japan on

Monday evening as a weakened tropical storm, as unfavorable upper level

conditions (vertical wind shear) & its interaction to land disrupts its

circulation.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's strong circulation continues to swirl over the

Northern Philippine Sea with its westernmost outer bands still affec-

ting the Batanes Group of Islands and is now spreading across Yaeyama

Island Chain. Cloudy skies w/ at times moderate to heavy rains & thun-

derstorms accompanied with some winds not exceeding 60 km/hr can be

expected along these bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes

must seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods &

landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this

system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to

be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) across Western Luzon including Metro

Manila, Western Bicol, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Western Visayas, & Pa-

lawan. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with

possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds

not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threa-

tening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Phili-

ppines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Tropical Depression 16W currently moving
WNW over the far Western Pacific Ocean about 670 km (362 nm) SE of
Tokyo, Japan (31.2N 144.5E). Packing 1-min sustained winds of 55 kph,
the system was moving WNW @ 15 kph. Based on its forecast, this sys-

tem may regain Tropical Storm status as it approaches the SE coast
of Honshu within 24 to 48 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) 10 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 20.9º N...LONGITUDE 124.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 245 KM (132 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 440 KM (238 NM) SE OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 535 KM (290 NM) SSE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 730 KM (395 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 941 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-SOUTHERN KYUSHU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 25 FEET (7.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 PM MANILA TIME WED SEP 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - BATANES AND BABUYAN ISLANDS.
#01 - CAGAYAN & APAYAO.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 21.6N 124.3E / 215-260 KPH / N @ 09 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 22.5N 124.4E / 220-270 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 24.7N 125.2E / 230-280 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 27.0N 126.9E / 195-240 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 20.7N 124.3E.
^TYPHOON SINLAKU (15W) HAS INTENSIFIED 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY CONT-
INUES TO DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE
FEATURE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
DYNAMIC MODEL AIDS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT, HOWEVER THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN TRACK DEPICTION AFTER TAU 24,
AND SEVERAL OUTLIERS EXIST WITH EGRR TO THE EXTREME WEST AND
TCLAPS AND GFDN TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess.
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 8 PM (12 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 20.6N 124.3E / N @ 07 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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