Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS HAGUPIT (NINA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #005
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (NINA) HAS NUDGED MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...

RAPIDLY GAINED STRENGTH TO 95 KPH...MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY...

THREATENS BICOL REGION AND QUEZON PROVINCES.

*Residents along the Eastern Coast of Luzon including the Bicol Region, Quezon & Samar Provinces
should closely monitor the progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT is expected to resume its Westerly track for

the next 12 hours and shall gradually turn Northwesterly becoming a Ca-

tegory 1 Typhoon. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows HAGUPIT re-

turning back to its WNW track on Monday morning, passing very close to

the Northern tip of Cagayan and across the Calayan and Batanes Group on

Tuesday Sep 23. It shall then move out into the South China Sea on Wed-

nesday morning. The typhoon shall be approaching the southern coast of

Guangdong Province of China, near Hong Kong on Thursday Sep 24 as a Ca-

tegory 3 system with projected wind speeds of 195 kph. *Alternate Fore-

cast Scenario: There's a possibilty that HAGUPIT may continue tracking

more Westward & make landfall over Central or Northern Luzon on Tuesday,

Sep 23. This scenario is likely if the westward extension of the strong

steering ridge north & NW of HAGUPIT remains strong.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's circulation has grown in size and has now a diameter

of 590 km across. Its outer bands is now spreading across the eastern

coast of Samar...expected to reach the Bicol Region later today. Under

these bands, the affected areas are expected to experience light to mo-

derate rainfall w/ winds not exceeding 50 km/hr. Heavy Squalls is likely

possible later tomorrow as the deeper part of the outer bands approaches.

People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan

Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS

(LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay

alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this storm are likely to

affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep

slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening

flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if

necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by TS HAGUPIT (NINA) has been spreading across
Mindanao and Visayas. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy
skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains
& winds not exceeding 30 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) SAT 20 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.4º N...LONGITUDE 131.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 735 KM (397 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 800 KM (432 NM) EAST OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 855 KM (462 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,025 KM (555 NM) ESE OF INFANTA, QUEZON, PH

DISTANCE 5: 1,085 KM (585 NM) ESE OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SAT SEP 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 13.7N 129.7E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 14.6N 128.1E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 16.6N 125.8E / 165-205 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 18.4N 123.2E / 185-230 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 13.3N 131.6E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TD) 18W (HAGUPIT) WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION EVIDENT IN BOTH
METSAT IMAGERY AND RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONFIRMING THE INTEN-
SIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 190915Z PARTIAL 85GHZ SSMI IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TS 18W INITIALLY TRACKED RAPIDLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PREVIOUS 06-09
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM MUCH BETTER, HOWEVER
THE AVAILABLE AIDS DIVERGE SHARPLY AFTER TAU 36 INDICATING A SIG-
NIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE DEPICTION OF THE STEERING INFLUENCE
AFFECTING TS 18W...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 13.4N 131.2E / WNW @ 17 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HAGUPIT (NINA)...go visit
our website @:

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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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