Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NINA (18W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL STORM NINA [18W]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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NINA (18W) RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A 75-KPH TROPICAL STORM...NOW

THREATENS LUZON.

*Residents along the Eastern Coast of Luzon including the Bicol Region & Samar Provinces should
closely monitor the progress of NINA (18W).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: NINA is expected to gradually slow down and turn

westward for the next 12 hours before taking a WNW track. It shall reach

Typhoon status on Sunday afternoon, Sep 21. The 3 to 5-day long-range

forecast shows NINA maintaing the WNW track, becoming a Categoy 2 Typhoon

w/ projected winds of almost 150 kph on Monday afternoon, Sep 22 - as it

approaches the Coast of Northern Cagayan. The core of Nina shall cross

the northern tip of Cagayan Monday evening and pass along the Babuyan and

Calayan Group of Islands, affecting the Northern Coast of Apayao and

Ilocos Norte through the early morning hours of Monday, Sep 22. The

typhoon shall approach the coast of Hong Kong and Macau on Wednesday

afternoon Sep 24 as a Category 3 system with projected wind speeds of

185 kph. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibilty that NINA

may continue tracking more Westward & make landfall over Central or

Northern Luzon on Tuesday, Sep 23. This scenario is likely if the

westward extension of the strong steering ridge north of NINA

remains strong.

+ EFFECTS: NINA's developing broad-circulation remains over the Phili-

ppine Sea and is not yet affeting any Pacific Islands.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by the TS NINA (18W) across Palau, Ulithi, Yap
and other small islands of Western Micronesia...and is now spreading
across Mindanao. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy
skies with possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy
rains & winds not exceeding 40 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.0º N...LONGITUDE 133.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,005 KM (543 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,075 KM (580 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,125 KM (608 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 1,260 KM (680 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: LUZON
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): --- KM (--- NM)/N/A
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 7 FEET (2.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 13.9N 132.0E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 14.5N 130.0E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 16.4N 126.3E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 18.1N 122.9E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.1N 134.1E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING STATUS
BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION EVIDENT IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 182205Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND-
ING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 37 GHZ IMAGE, IN PARTICULAR, SHOWED
AN IMPROVED LLCC WITH MUCH IMPROVED BANDING. TD 18W HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
AND HAS REMAINED INCONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH BOTH
NOGAPS AND GFS POORLY INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 14.1N 134.3E / W @ 15 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS NINA (18W)...go visit
our website @:

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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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