Friday, September 19, 2008

TS SINLAKU (MARCE) - Update #016


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #016
Name: TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #042
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
SINLAKU (MARCE) DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...MAY REACH EXTRATROPICAL
STATUS SOON..CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF SHIKOKU'S SOUTHERN COAST
IN JAPAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU is expected to continue heading ENE throughout 
its forecast, becoming a cold-core (extratropical) system tomorrow evening
or early Sunday morning. It shall pass over the Southern coast of Honshu
beginning tonight until tomorrow afternoon - passing close to the south of
Metropolitan Tokyo around 8 or 9 AM Japan Standard Time (JST). It shall
move back to sea along the southeastern coast of Honshu on Saturday
afternoon.

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU's core remains offshore, just to the south of shikoku...
its rainbands continues to spread across Shikoku and is now moving across
Western Honshu...shall reach Southern and Central Honshu this afternoon or
tonight. Moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding 100 km/hr can
be expected along its rainbands...1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 & up
to 300 mm can be expected along these bands...with isolated amounts rea-
ching 400 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas
& steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threa-
tening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought
about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: 
The strong Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA/1004 MB)
over the Mid-Western Pacific Ocean is now likely to become Tropical Depre-
ssion 18W (Pre-NINA) this morning...now located near lat 15.3N lon 136.6E...
about 170 km East of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...or about
1,340 km ENE of Bicol Region, Philippines...packing sustained winds of 40
km/hr...moving WSW @ 15 kph towards the Philippine Sea. Majority of the
forecast models shows it becoming a large storm or typhoon heading towards
the northern part of Luzon early next week. Watch for the issuance of its
first public advisory via email or website later this morning. Kindly click
the
new & cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every 12 PM PST (04
GMT)...it shows existing weather systems across the South China Sea and
the Western Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) FRI 19 SEP 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 31.9º N...LONGITUDE 133.4º
DISTANCE 1: 180 KM (97
NM) SOUTH OF KOCHI, SHIKOKU, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 490 KM (265 NM) SW OF NAGOYA, HONSHU, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 720 (390 NM) WSW OF TOKYO, JAPAN
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 405 KM (220 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.21 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 19
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: None

12, 24, 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 32.9N 135.2E / 95-120 KPH / ENE @ 26 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 34.2N 138.2E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 30 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 36.4N 146.6E / 75-95 KPH / --- @ -- KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 31.6N 132.8E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TROPICAL STORM (TS) SINLAKU (15W) HAS SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FLUXUATION IN INTENSITY, BRIEFLY RETURNING TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE DROPPING TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS. THE RE-INTENSIFICATION, LIKELY FUELED BY IMPROVED SURFACE
CONSOLIDATION AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCLUDED THE REFORMATION
OF A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE AND 63 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AS
REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OF THE REGION. THIS INCREASED
INTENSITY HOWEVER WAS SHORT-LIVED, AND THE STORM HAS SINCE SLOWED
SLIGHTLY AND WEAKENED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION WHILE TRACKING SOUTH OF KYUSHU. DESPITE THE STRONGER VWS,
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED INTACT AND VERT-
ICALLY STACKED BASED ON THE 181008Z SSMIS 37/91 GHZ IMAGES. CURRENT
METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
...
(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess
   
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

_____________________________________________________________________________
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RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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>
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