Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAGUPIT (NINA) just passed over Calayan Island... [Update #008]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TYPHOON HAGUPIT [NINA/18W/0814]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 22 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #015 / SATFIX
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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THE LARGE EYE OF MORE POWERFUL TYPHOON HAGUPIT (NINA) HAS JUST LEFT
THE ISLAND OF CALAYAN...EASTERN EYEWALL NOW LASHING THE AREA.

*Residents along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the
progress of HAGUPIT (NINA).

**Check & click T2K's newest cool product: HOURLY POSITION ESTIMATES

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HAGUPIT's core is expected to move into the South

China Sea tonight and is likely to reach Category 3 strength if its

intensification process continues. The 2 to 4-day medium-range forecast

shows HAGUPIT accelerating towards the southern coast of Guangdong Pro-

vince of China, near Hong Kong-Macau area tomorrow...shall make landfall

over Southwestern Guangdong on Wednesday afternoon. HAGUPIT shall dissi-

pate along Northern Vietnam on Friday Sep 26.

+ EFFECTS: HAGUPIT's very large circulation continues to cover almost the

whole of Luzon w/ its core (eye + eyewall) over Calayan Group. The EYEWALL

is currently affecting the Northwestern Coast of Cagayan, Babuyan, Calayan

and Batanes Islands, & the Northern Coast of Ilocos Norte - bringing ty-

phoon conditions across the area. Its inner rainbands continues to affect

Northern Luzon...while its outer bands remains across Central Luzon. Light

to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds not exceeding 60 km/hr

can be expected along its outer bands with inceasing wind speeds of up to

85-100 kph over the inner bands. 24-hr rainfall accumulations of 200 up to

400 mm can be expected along the inner bands and near its eye with isolated

amounts reaching 500 mm especially along mountain slopes. Residents in low-

lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible

life-threatening flash floods & landslides due to the anticipated heavy

rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated

if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above

normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be

expected near and to the east of HAGUPIT's projected path particularly on

where the center passes by across Extreme Northern Luzon. Moderate damage

is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The surge of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon
which has been enhanced by HAGUPIT (NINA) continues to affect Metro Manila,
Western & Southern Luzon including Bicol, Visayas, Palawan & Mindoro. This
wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with possible "on-&-off"
light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds not exceeding 50 km/hr.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 22 SEP 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.4º N...LONGITUDE 121.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 25 KM (13 NM) WNW OF CALAYAN ISLAND, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 130 KM (70 NM) NNW OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 145 KM (78 NM) SSW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 150 KM (80 NM) NNE OF LAOAG CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 6-8 FEET new!
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,035 KM (560 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.6 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME MON SEP 22
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANES, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS,
      APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.
#02 - REST OF CAGAYAN, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE & ILOCOS SUR.
#01 - ISABELA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, IFUGAO,
      BENGUET, LA UNION, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, & PAMPANGA.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 19.9N 119.5E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 23 SEPTEMBER: 20.5N 116.8E / 175-215 KPH / W @ 26 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 24 SEPTEMBER: 21.3N 111.4E / 130-160 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 21.6N 107.0E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.3N 122.1E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 18W (HAGUPIT) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE TURNING INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENHANCED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW LAYER OVER
THE TYPHOON...(more)

>> HAGUPIT {pronounced: ha~goo~peet}, meaning: Lash; flog.
Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 22 SEPTEMBER: 19.5N 121.6E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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