Saturday, September 13, 2008

Typhoon SINLAKU (MARCE) - Update #008


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008
Name: TYPHOON SINLAKU [MARCE/15W/0813] 
Issued: 12:00 AM MANILA TIME (16:00 GMT) SAT 13 SEPTEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #017
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TYPHOON SINLAKU (MARCE) WEAKENS ANEW...SLOWLY TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH-
WEST, ENDANGERS NORTHERN TAIWAN INCLUDING TAIPEI...YAEYAMA ISLANDS
STILL UNDER THE NEW NORTHERN EYEWALL.

*Residents along Eastern Taiwan, Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Island Chain & the Southern Coast of
Kyushu in Japan should closely monitor the progress of SINLAKU.


+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: SINLAKU's forecast has again changed, now bringing
the core near to the Northern Coast of Taiwan tomorrow evening. It is
expected to recurve sharply to the NE by tomorrow afternoon, regaining
possibly its 215-kph Category 4 winds. The 3 to 5-day long-range fore-
cast shows SINLAKU accelerating in a more ENE track beginning late
Sunday evening towards the Southern coast of Kyushu in Japan. The
typhoon is forecast to lose its strength, down to Category 1 - as it
approaches the Japanese Coast sometime Tuesday evening, Sep 16. *Alternate
Forecast Scenario: Some computer models are still showing a possibilty that SINLAKU may
track more WNW and make landfall over Northern
Taiwan tomorrow. This scenario is likely if
the strong steering ridge to its east continues to extend to its north. Actually most of the Asian
agencies shows this scenario. kindly click here to view asian tracks
. 

+ EFFECTS: SINLAKU has completed its Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)
with the diminishment of its inner eyewall, thus further re-strengthe-
ning of its wind speed is expected tomorrow, bringing it back to Cate-
gory 4 status. The new eye now measures approximately 110 km across.
The new northern eyewall (from the ERC) continues to lash the Yaeyama
Island Chain with very strong winds and heavy rainfall. Its inner
bands on the other hand has been covering the eastern part of Tai-
wan...while the outer bands remains across the rest of Taiwan. Cloudy
skies w/ at times moderate to heavy squalls with winds not exceeding
95 km/hr can be expected along its outer bands, with increasing winds
and more pronounce rainfall within the inner bands. 1-day rainfall
accumulations of up to 200-400 mm can be expected along these bands.
Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected along Northern Taiwan
as the core slowly approaches. Residents in low-lying areas & steep
slopes must seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods
& landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this
system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible
coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels
...along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near
and to the north of SINLAKU's projected path particularly on where
the center passes by in Yaeyama Islands. Extensive damage is possible
on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
The Southwest (SW) Monsoon continues to
be enhanced by TY SINLAKU (MARCE) across Western Luzon including Metro
Manila, Western Bicol, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Western Visayas, & Pa-
lawan. This wind system is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies with
possible "on-&-off" light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains & winds
not exceeding 30 km/hr. Landslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threa-
tening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano
slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected
areas. Meanwhile, ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting the whole Phili-
ppines. It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms -
most especially in the afternoon or evening.


Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) 12 SEP 2008 
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 23.9º N...LONGITUDE 123.4º
DISTANCE 1: 185 KM (100
NM) EAST OF HUALIEN CITY, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 220 KM (120 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 405 KM (218 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 545 KM (295 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3) 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAEYAMA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 PM MANILA TIME FRI SEP 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
LIVE RADAR: CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU, TAIWAN


PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 24.5N 122.9E / 205-250 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 25.4N 122.5E / 205-250 KPH / N @ 07 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 27.2N 123.2E / 215-260 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 28.9N 126.0E / 160-195 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.7N 123.6E.
^TY 15W HAS STRUGGLED TO REBOUND FROM AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT
HAD BEGUN OVER 12 HOURS AGO. THE OUTER EYEWALL HAS YET TO CONTRACT BACK
TO THE ORIGINAL EYEWALL'S INITIAL POSITION AND REMAINS RAGGED, SOMEWHAT
FILLED, AND EXCEPTIONALLY ENLARGED. CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAD
ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISCONTINUOUS AROUND THE EYE. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
NORTHERN TAIWAN
...
(more)

>> SINLAKU {pronounced: seen~la~ku}, meaning: Kosrae legendary goddess
   
Name contributed by: Micronesia.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 10 PM (14 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 23.7N 123.5E / NW @ 07 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT WUNDERGOUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800
(GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN) 
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY SINLAKU (MARCE)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


Copyright © 2008 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

__._,_.___
Recent Activity
Visit Your Group
Curves on Yahoo!

Share & discuss

Curves, fitness

and weight loss.

Weight Loss Group

on Yahoo! Groups

Get support and

make friends online.

Family Photos

Learn how to best

capture your

family moments.

.

__,_._,___

No comments: