Thursday, October 02, 2008

TD HIGOS (PABLO) exits PAR...heads for Southern China... [Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HIGOS [PABLO/21W/0817] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 02 OCTOBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #013
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
HIGOS (PABLO), AFTER CROSSING SOUTHERN TAGALOG YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...NOW OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND WILL EXIT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HIGOS is expected to continue moving NW for the next
24 hours...intensifying slightly to minimal Tropical Storm strength. The
3 to 5-day long range forecast shows the system recurving NNE to NE-ward
...making landfall over Macau-Hong Kong area on Sunday evening, Oct 5th.
It shall then move inland across Eastern Gunagdong...dissipating along
Fujian Province on Oct 7.

+ EFFECTS: HIGOS' not-so-healthy circulation remains over the South China
Sea...its Easternmost outerbands no longer affecting Western Luzon.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) THU 02 OCT 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.2º N...LONGITUDE 116.2º
DISTANCE 1: 420 KM (227
NM) WNW OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 440 KM (237 NM) WEST OF SAN FERNANDO, LA UNION, PH
DISTANCE 3: 690 KM (372 NM) SE OF QIONGHAI, HAINAN ISLAND
DISTANCE 4: 710 KM (383 NM) SSE OF HONG KONG, CHINA 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/
SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 
2 PM MANILA TIME THU OCT 2
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.0N 114.9E / 65-85 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 18.1N 113.6E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 20.1N 112.8E / 95-120 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 21.9N 113.9E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.9N 116.6E.
^THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER
THE PHILIPPINES AND WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) ON
THE 01/18Z WARNING. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY-
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO CLEAR CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012034Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK,
ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIMITED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND WEAKER CURVED BANDING NORTH. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACK-
ING WESTWARD SLOWLY BUT THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
POSITIONING DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED STATE. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED
INCONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN, NOGAPS AND ECMWF
...
(more)

>> HIGOS, meaning: A Chamorro word for "Fig." Name contributed by: 
   United States of America
.

_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 16.0N 115.0E / WNW @ 20 KPH / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS HIGOS (PABLO)...go visit
our website @:

>
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