Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD HIGOS (PABLO) now heads for Hainan... [Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HIGOS [PABLO/21W/0817]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 03 OCTOBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) TC WARNING #015
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HIGOS (PABLO) REMAINS UNDER SLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE

CONDITIONS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...CHANGED ITS COURSE MORE WESTWARD

...IN THE DIRECTION OF HAINAN ISLAND.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: HIGOS is expected to cross the southern & western

part of Hainan Island early tomorrow morning and track more NNW to

Northward. It shall dissipate over Western Guangdong by early Monday

morning, Oct 6.

+ EFFECTS: HIGOS' not-so-healthy circulation now off the Eastern Coast

of Hainan Island. Widespread rains can be expected later today over the

whole island as the system moves closer. 1-day rainfall accumulations of

50 up to 100 mm is possible along the core...with isolated accumulations

of 200 mm near the center of HIGOS especially along the mountain slopes

of Hainan Island.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM HONG KONG TIME (21:00 GMT) FRI 03 OCT 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.8º N...LONGITUDE 112.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 325 KM (175 NM) SE OF SANYA, HAINAN ISLAND
DISTANCE 2: 320 KM (173 NM) SSE OF QIONGHAI, HAINAN ISLAND
DISTANCE 3: 450 KM (243 NM) SE OF DONGFANG, HAINAN ISLAND

DISTANCE 4: 645 KM (348 NM) SSW OF HONG KONG, CHINA
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: HAINAN ISLAND
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME FRI OCT 3
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.3N 110.8E / 55-75 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.4N 109.5E / 65-85 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 20.8N 108.8E / 45-65 KPH / NNE @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 22.9N 109.8E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.6N 112.6E.
^OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH METSAT
AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTING A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 030046Z SSMIS IMAGE CONFIRMS CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING CONVERGING ON AN ILL-DEFINED
CENTER. THE MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
DIFFERING SPEEDS OF RECURVATURE...(more)

>> HIGOS, meaning: A Chamorro word for "Fig." Name contributed by:
United States of America.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD HIGOS (PABLO)...go visit
our website @:

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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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