Sunday, November 16, 2008

TD TONYO (26W) - Update #003


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [26W] 
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: JTWC WARNING #001 / T2K EXTRAPOLATE ANALYSIS
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (26W) HAS MOVED OUT OF THE PHILIPPINE AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AFTER CROSSING SOUTHERN PALAWAN EARLY LAST
NIGHT...NOW ACCELERATING WESTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE SPRATLY ISLANDS
...AIMING FOR SOUTHERN VIETNAM.

*Interests in Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to maintain its Westward track
for the next 5 days...may reach tropical storm status later today and
make landfall over Southern Vietnam tomorrow evening, Nov 17 - just east
of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). The core is expected to pass very
near to the south of Ho Chi Minh around 3 to 4 AM on Tuesday, Nov 18.
The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows TONYO traversing the Gulf of
Thailand as a minimal tropical storm on Wednesday morning, Nov 19...and
shall cut across Isthmus of Kra Wednesday afternoon...moving into
Andaman Sea off Indian Ocean on Thursday Nov 20, changing its identity
from a Tropical Storm to a CYCLONE (term usually used for tropical
cyclones off Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal).

+ EFFECTS: TONYO's circulation remains over the South China Sea, along
the Spratlys...its eastern rainbands no longer affecting Southern Pala-
wan...western rainbands shall reach Southern Vietnam later tonight or
tomorrow morning. These bands is expected to bring scattered, widespread
rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not in
excess of 75 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is
possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250
mm near the center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes
must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash
floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought
about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if
necessary.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOV 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.4º N...LONGITUDE 114.6º
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45
NM) SSE OF PAGASA ISLAND, SPRATLYS 
DISTANCE 2: 455 KM (245 NM) WNW OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY, PALAWAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 625 KM (338 NM) ESE OF NHA TRANG CITY, VIETNAM
DISTANCE 4: 865 KM (468 NM) ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW FINAL T2K TRACKING MAP: 
12 PM MANILA TIME SUN NOV 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 10.4N 113.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 22 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 10.6N 111.0E / 75-95 KPH / W @ 22 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 18 NOVEMBER: 10.5N 105.9E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER: 10.0N 100.6E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 26 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.1N 115.6E.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD TONYO (26W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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