Friday, November 14, 2008

TD TONYO (96W) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [96W] 
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) FRI 14 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (96W), A NEWLY-F0RMED SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPED
OFF THE PHILIPPINE SEA LAST NIGHT...NOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF 
SURIGAO DEL SUR...CIRCULATION BECOMING DISORGANIZED. SCATTERED WIDESPREAD
RAINS WITH ACCOMPANYING SQUALLS (AKA. "SUBASKO")
WITHIN ITS RAINBANDS
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINDANAO AND
SOUTHERN VISAYAS.

*Interests along the Northern Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to continue tracking West to WNW
within the next 12 to 24 hours...shall start crossing Surigao Del Sur
and Agusan Provinces this afternoon...and pass between Bukidnon-Misamis
Oriental tonight. TONYO shall be off Bohol Sea tomorrow morning and shall
pass to the southern coast of Negros Island before noon tomorrow...near
Puerto Princesa City or over Central Palawan before noon on Sunday Nov
16 and over the South China Sea on Monday morning Nov 17.

+ EFFECTS: TONYO's circulation has remained a little disorganized due to
its interaction with Mindanao's land mass...its scattered western rainbands
continues to spread across Eastern, Northern and Central Mindanao and por-
tions of Southern Visayas. These bands is expected to bring widespread
rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not in
excess of 60 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is possi-
ble along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm near
the center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain
alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods,
mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by
this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
 
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon
enhanced by TD TONYO is currently affecting Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region
& Visayas. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light to moderate passing
rains w/ at times heavy downpour & NE'ly winds not exceeding 45 km/hr
can be expected along the affected areas. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows
(lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep
mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of
the affected areas.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) FRI 14 NOV 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 8.3º N...LONGITUDE 126.8º
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30
NM) EAST OF BISLIG CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 160 KM (85 NM) SE OF BUTUAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 200 KM (108 NM) EAST OF MALAYBALAY CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 220 KM (120 NM) SSE OF SURIGAO CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 245 KM (132 NM) ESE OF CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 6: 360 KM (195 NM) SE OF TAGBILARAN CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 7: 385 KM (208 NM) ESE OF DIPOLOG CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 8: 390 KM (210 NM) SE OF CEBU CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 9: 400 KM (215 NM) ESE OF DUMAGUETE CITY, PH 
MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 60 KM/HR (33 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SURIGAO DEL SUR-AGUSAN PROVINCES AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
11 AM MANILA TIME FRI NOV 14

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - SURIGAO DEL NORTE, DINAGAT ISLAND, SURIGAO DEL SUR, SIARGAO
      ISLANDS, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, DAVAO DEL NORTE,
      DAVAO ORIENTAL, DAVAO DEL SUR, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, CAMIGUIN,
      LANAO DEL NORTE, LANAO DEL SUR, BUKIDNON, NORTH COTABATO,
      MAGUINDANAO, SULTAN KUDARAT, & SOUTH COTABATO.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 15 NOVEMBER: 9.0N 123.4E
8 AM (00 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 9.7N 119.4E
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 10.1N 115.3E

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 14 NOVEMBER POSITION: 8.2N 127.4E.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD TONYO (96W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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