Saturday, November 15, 2008

TD TONYO (96W) - Update #002


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [96W] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 15 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #006 / T2K SAT DATA ANALYSIS
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (96W) HAS CROSSED NORTHERN MINDANAO AND
SOUTHERN VISAYAS YESTERDAY...NOW OFF THE SEA OF SULU...A MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY CIRCULATION WEST OF ZAMBOANGA CITY (6.6N 120.8E)
MAY LIKELY BE THE NEW NEAR-SURFACE CENTER IF CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION
OCCURS.

*Interests in Palawan should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to maintain its WNW track for the
next 2 to 3 days...it shall cross Central Palawan later tonight, passing
just north of Puerto Princesa City. The 48-hour forecast shows TONYO
moving out into the South China Sea.

+ EFFECTS: After interacting with the terrain of Northern Mindanao,
TONYO's circulation has shrunked dramatically, but a new and much
stronger circulation has been expanding west of Zamboanga City...now
spreading across much of Sulu Sea, Borneo and Western Mindanao. These
bands is expected to bring scattered, widespread rains with passing
moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not in excess of 50 kph.
1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is possible along its
rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm near the
center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must
remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash
floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains
brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be
initiated if necessary.
 
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon
enhanced by TD TONYO and a Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) is currently affecting
Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Partly cloudy to cloudy
skies with light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour &
NE'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected along the affected
areas. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening
flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes,
river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) SAT 15 NOV 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.4º N...LONGITUDE 122.2º
DISTANCE 1: 120 KM (65
NM) WEST OF DUMAGUETE CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 150 KM (80 NM) NW OF DIPOLOG CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 150 KM (80 NM) SSW OF ILOILO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 210 KM (113 NM) SSE OF CUYO ISLAND, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 385 KM (208 NM) EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY, PALAWAN, PH 
MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 60 KM/HR (33 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SULU SEA-PALAWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
5 AM MANILA TIME SAT NOV 15

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - PALAWAN, ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE & SOUTHERN NEGROS
.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 10.2N 118.0E
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 11.0N 113.2E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 NOVEMBER POSITION: 9.4N 122.8E.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD TONYO (96W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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