Bushman's Typhoon Blog: 27W now a Tropical Storm (TS)... [Update #003]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM 27W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) FRI 12 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #007 / GUAM DOPPLER RADAR / T2K XTRAPLOT
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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27W (UNNAMED) NOW A TROPICAL STORM...HEADING TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of 27W.

**This email update now includes a brand new SATELLITE ANIMATION from Wunderground.com.
Kindly browse below.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The latest forecast package now shows 27W intensi-

fying to near-typhoon strength after entering the Philippine Area of

Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon, reaching 1-min sustained winds

of 100 kph. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows 27W turning WNW-

ward on Monday morning Dec 15 and weakening down to 75 or 65 kph. Its

center shall pass more or less 100 km to the NE of Catanduanes-Camarines

Provinces area on Tuesday evening Dec 16 til Wednesday morning Dec 17.

*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibilty that 27W may track

WSW & make landfall over Samar Island as a weakened Tropical Depression

on Tuesday Dec 16. This scenario is likely possible if the strong stee-

ring high pressure ridge over SE China strengthens.

+ EFFECTS: 27W's circulation is no longer affecting The Marianas as it

continued on its westerly track but has began to expand with the deve-

lopment of spiral bands especially along the SE and NE quadrant of the

storm. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible

along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm

near the center of 27W.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) FRI 12 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.6º N...LONGITUDE 140.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 465 KM (250 NM) WEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 590 KM (318 NM) WSW OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 525 KM (285 NM) NNE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

DISTANCE 4: 595 KM (322 NM) EAST OF P.A.R.
DISTANCE 5: 1,750 KM (945 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 350 KM (188 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 12 PM MANILA TIME FRI DEC 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 12 DECEMBER: 13.4N 138.9E / 75-95 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 13.4N 136.7E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.2N 132.3E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.0N 128.6E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 12 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.2N 140.9E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM (TS) AND SLOWED TO APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS SOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CDO FEATURE WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE CDO. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED INFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. ANIMATED WATER IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR BUT IMPROVED OUTFLOW WITH
A WEAK POLEWARD CHANNEL DEVELOPING AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUT-
FLOW. AN 112352Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWED INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112033Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND THE
GUAM VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MODIFIED THE
SURROUNDING WINDFLOW, WHICH IS NOW FEEDING INTO THE STORM RATHER
THAN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...(more)

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS 27W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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