Thursday, December 11, 2008

TD 27W (UNNAMED) - Update #001


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W [UNNAMED] 
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) THU 11 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #003 / GUAM DOPPLER RADAR / T2K XTRAPLOT
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (UNNAMED) NEWLY-FORMED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...APPROACHING GUAM...MAY PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

*Interests in Southern Marianas and Eastern Philippines should closely monitor the progress of 27W.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 27W is expected to continue on its fast WNW to west-
ward track for the next 3 to 5 days...becoming a minimal Tropical Storm
(65-kph) tomorrow. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility
(PAR) on Saturday evening Dec 13. The 4 to 5-day long-range forecast
shows 27W weakening into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it approaches
the Eastern Coast of the Bicol Region and Samar Tuesday morning Dec 16.
Watch for more forecast outlook on this depression soon.

+ EFFECTS: 27W's developing rain bands spreading across the Mariana
Island Chain. These bands is expected to bring light to moderate to
some isolated heavy rains with passing strong squalls...wind gusts
not in excess of 75 kph is possible across the island chain today.
1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm is possible along its
rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 75 mm near the
center of 27W.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 11 DEC 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.8º N...LONGITUDE 145.3º
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45
NM) SE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI 
DISTANCE 2: 270 KM (146 NM) SSE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 865 KM (467 NM) NE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 4: 1,115 KM (602 NM) EAST OF P.A.R. 
DISTANCE 5: 2,275 KM (1,228 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 40 KM/HR (22 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: GUAM-SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 350 KM (190 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 
8 AM MANILA TIME THU DEC 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 11 DECEMBER: 12.8N 144.5E / 55-65 KPH / W @ 28 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 12 DECEMBER: 13.3N 141.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 22 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 13.9N 136.5E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 132.7E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 DECEMBER POSITION: 12.5N 147.3E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED A
WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION, WEAK BANDING AND A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LATEST MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC MAY HAVE OPENED BACK UP INTO A MORE WAVE-LIKE
FEATURE AND SHOWED NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT E.G., NO WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. INSTEAD DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING IN A LINEAR
FASHION NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD AT 15-17 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED LIMITED
AND MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
...
(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD 27W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

>
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